UK is back in recession, says OECD

[anaxarchos]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...says-OECD.html

UK is back in recession, says OECD

Britain has plunged back into a recession, as the economy continued to shrink in the first three months of the year, according to a leading global authority.

By Emm Rowley10:57AM BST 29 Mar 2012
The Telegraph

In a major blow for the Chancellor, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has calculated that the UK economy shrank in the first three months of the year.

Over the January to March period, economic output fell compared to the previous quarter, at an annual rate of -0.4pc, the Paris-based think-tank believes. That would imply quarter-on-quarter growth of -0.1pc. After three months of negative growth at the end of last year, that figure would signal that the UK has double-dipped back into a recession. The analysis, contained within the OECD's interim economic assessment, will pile pressure on George Osborne after official figures on Wednesday slashed the UK economy's growth profile over 2011.

The economy shrank by a bigger-than-thought 0.3pc in the last quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics reported. That meant growth was just 0.7pc for the year as a whole.

The expectation among economists had generally been that despite the end of year slump, the UK would avoid a recession as the economy grew in the first three months of 2011. However Wednesday’s revisions to the fourth quarter numbers stoked fears that the UK failed to recover in the following quarter, which will be further fanned by the OECD’s figures.

(more)

Ooops...

[Dhalgren]

Will the EU bosses now talk about BPIIGS (blindpigs? Sorry BP) I guess I had misunderstood what "double-dip" meant. I thought it had to do with successive sectors of the economy going down - but that's not it, is it?

[anaxarchos]

Will the EU bosses now talk about BPIIGS (blindpigs? Sorry BP) I guess I had misunderstood what "double-dip" meant. I thought it had to do with successive sectors of the economy going down - but that's not it, is it?

By "double-dip", they mean they get another bout of "bust" (i.e. negative GDP) before they get to a proper "boom". They don't have a lot of experience with it (since the Great Depression).

What it means is that the recession was not just caused by the "business cycle" (i.e. commercial crisis), but by something far more fundamental. Right now, of the European "majors", the UK, France and Italy have all returned to negative GDP "growth" before they ever recovered. The UK and Italy have done it long enough to qualify as a second dip. The rest are as stagnant as a puddle.

Part of the reason is "austerity" (caused by "conservative economic policy" and "deficit reduction", yadda, yadda), but the truth is that the lack of Keynesian action ("stimulus") at this late date only indicates how fundamental this meltdown still is. Of all of the EU countries, only the draconian policy in Greece has actually managed to sustain recession through policy. The others are still in a "natural" and organic free-fall. Conservative policy only serves to hurt people... i.e. it is so much personal recreation for the booge.

[Kid of the Black Hole]

Conservative policy only serves to hurt people... i.e. it is so much personal recreation for the booge.

Thats the conclusion I came to as well. They're up the creek no matter how much "infrastructure" they might dream of building, so they're doing what they've always been best at anyway: baring their fangs -- only now it does double duty as the hiss of a cornered animal in addition to its normal predatory connotation.

Of course, it seems a bit naive and far gone anyway -- as if the US (and UK I suppose) are havens for desperate rentier capital.