Where's winter?

[meganmonkey]

Never thought the day would come that I'd be *hoping* for snow.

It's basically mid-January and winter hasn't even started here in Michigan. We had a cold spell several weeks ago, we've had a dusting of snow here and there, but it got to or near 50 degrees a few times in the last week. Sat on the backporch with the sun on me, light sweater, no socks in my slip-on sandals, and read for awhile the other day.

They say we could get an inch or two tonight, but it's all rain right now and I won't believe it till I see it.

Anyone else weirded out by this 'winter'?

[Dhalgren]

Never thought the day would come that I'd be *hoping* for snow.

It's basically mid-January and winter hasn't even started here in Michigan. We had a cold spell several weeks ago, we've had a dusting of snow here and there, but it got to or near 50 degrees a few times in the last week. Sat on the backporch with the sun on me, light sweater, no socks in my slip-on sandals, and read for awhile the other day.

They say we could get an inch or two tonight, but it's all rain right now and I won't believe it till I see it.

Anyone else weirded out by this 'winter'?

Yeah, it is weird. I am in Northern Alabama and it has never been this warm this late in the "winter". This is the way it is going to be, I think. Global warming is becoming demonstrably real - yet everyone has stopped talking about it. Maybe it is too late to worry and all we can do now is "hope" for the best...Americans are pretty good at that...

[blindpig]

Yeah, it is weird. I am in Northern Alabama and it has never been this warm this late in the "winter". This is the way it is going to be, I think. Global warming is becoming demonstrably real - yet everyone has stopped talking about it. Maybe it is too late to worry and all we can do now is "hope" for the best...Americans are pretty good at that...

It's been a mild one so far and time is getting short for 'serious' winter to kick in, but this ain't the first time. I have long watched the weather close, a function of being an amateur naturalist. I recall one winter, about late 80's, that winter hardly happened, it statred hitting the low 70's by late Feburary and never quit from then. And of course 4 years ago we had a mild winter and then a bad freeze in early April which fucked up everything.

Over-all what I see is it is the milder winters which are causing the yearly averages to go up. We've had some hot summers with month long stretches of 95+ highs, but not for the last 5 or so. It's all in the long term averages. The real effect I'm seeing here is a decrease in overall rainfall, particularly in late winter/early spring. This pattern has been apparent for the last 25 years and has had a very bad effect on spring breeding amphibians, many of whom utilize temporary vernal ponds. Toad and treefrog numbers around the house are down about 90% over the last ten years. This lack of rain affects the entire ecosystem: low rain = low plant production = low insect production = the dominoes falling all the way up the food chain. Overall biomass production is reduced, the woods are more empty in summer, there are few hatchling reptiles in the fall. Were I to live long enough(not) I'd expect this area to develop into a scrub oak habitat. The pine trees introduced into this area to make some use of the vast acreage ruined by the cotton commodity are dying in droves(groves!), drought affected trees are most succeptable to the introduced pine bark beetle which carries the fungus which does them in. High winds last night knocked down a bunch as usual, we lost power for a few hours and I had to move a good sized tree off the driveway this morning, chainsaw work tomorrow.

[meganmonkey]

It's been a mild one so far and time is getting short for 'serious' winter to kick in, but this ain't the first time. I have long watched the weather close, a function of being an amateur naturalist. I recall one winter, about late 80's, that winter hardly happened, it statred hitting the low 70's by late Feburary and never quit from then. And of course 4 years ago we had a mild winter and then a bad freeze in early April which fucked up everything.

Over-all what I see is it is the milder winters which are causing the yearly averages to go up. We've had some hot summers with month long stretches of 95+ highs, but not for the last 5 or so. It's all in the long term averages. The real effect I'm seeing here is a decrease in overall rainfall, particularly in late winter/early spring. This pattern has been apparent for the last 25 years and has had a very bad effect on spring breeding amphibians, many of whom utilize temporary vernal ponds. Toad and treefrog numbers around the house are down about 90% over the last ten years. This lack of rain affects the entire ecosystem: low rain = low plant production = low insect production = the dominoes falling all the way up the food chain. Overall biomass production is reduced, the woods are more empty in summer, there are few hatchling reptiles in the fall. Were I to live long enough(not) I'd expect this area to develop into a scrub oak habitat. The pine trees introduced into this area to make some use of the vast acreage ruined by the cotton commodity are dying in droves(groves!), drought affected trees are most succeptable to the introduced pine bark beetle which carries the fungus which does them in. High winds last night knocked down a bunch as usual, we lost power for a few hours and I had to move a good sized tree off the driveway this morning, chainsaw work tomorrow.

Wow, thanks for all that.

I have a much less scientific and shorter-term view, but since I spend a couple years at a farm in the late 90s, I have been much more aware of the cycles and seasons and here in Michigan I have noticed that winters have been milder lately, with crazy storms thrown in - especially ice storms - causing a lot more destruction than I remember from usual snowy winters growing up. In 2006-07 (I think) it was warm in early January, pouring rain for days, the ground was saturated, and then it froze. HUGE old trees just fell over, their roots pulled right up out of the wet ground from the weight of the ice on the branches (I remember posting pics of this at PI - I had to do some fence repairs because of huge limbs falling off my 80 ft silver maples). I fear we are in for something similar this year. It has been colder the last couple days, it snowed a couple inches, but yesterday and today it is in the upper 30s and sunny, and we are expecting rain tonight with a low in the upper 30s (at night? In January? WTF?) and then another freeze tomorrow night with snow. The ground is squishy already under what is left of the snow.

The ground used to freeze and stay frozen. If there was precipitation it was almost always snow. This rain freaks me out.

Not to mention that the bad bugs (mosquitos and garden pests) are worse, it seems to me, when the winter isn't frozen long enough. Issues of mold and other problems from all the wetness.

Usually I start thinking about my garden, sketching plans, ordering seeds around this time of year but since winter has barely even started it doesn't seem right.

[BitterLittleFlower]

Never ever seen a winter like this, we've had less than ten inches total...never, and it hasn't hit single digits more than once or twice, forget below zero...

[TBF]

Agree with BP re the averages, and I also have wondered if the Fukushima incident has had any effect on the atmosphere.

[blindpig]

Agree with BP re the averages, and I also have wondered if the Fukushima incident has had any effect on the atmosphere.

Very hard to say, uncharted territory, offhand I'd guess not, don't think there was massive ash as with a major volcano.

[meganmonkey]

Hadn't even thought about Fukushima in that context. There's a part of me that can still think 'oh that's so far away' even though I know better.

We had a few days of very cold and a couple inches of snow. I actually shoveled. Now it's all warm and squishy again.

[blindpig]

Hadn't even thought about Fukushima in that context. There's a part of me that can still think 'oh that's so far away' even though I know better.

We had a few days of very cold and a couple inches of snow. I actually shoveled. Now it's all warm and squishy again.

Lots of trees and shrubs are budding here, scary. We had an Easter frost a few years ago after an early spring, 90% loss on the peach crop and all of the new leaves fell off the trees, smelled of decaying vegetation for weeks.

What's snow?

[PinkoCommie]

Lots of trees and shrubs are budding here, scary. We had an Easter frost a few years ago after an early spring, 90% loss on the peach crop and all of the new leaves fell off the trees, smelled of decaying vegetation for weeks.

What's snow?

Unusually wet in Texas - a good thing after the history making drought of the last year. Unseasonably warm with only a very few freezes and only one that was relatively hard in North Central Texas so far.

I am in San Antonio right now. Just yesterday a native commented on a flowering shrub I was admiring, perhaps some sort of bigleaf hydrangea, saying it was flowering weeks earlier than it was supposed to.

[BitterLittleFlower]

crocuses and snowdrops are breaking through the soil...rare in early March here, unheard of in February...buds on some trees... Folks are very concerned about their wells. Catskill creek is summer level, worrisome for me.

[blindpig]

Well, it ain't here and looks to be entirely awol. Ten day forecast has highs 83-74, lows 50-60. I imagine the peach growers are on pins and needles, again. I haven't seen a snowflake this year, not unprecedented but becoming more frequent. If we can dodge an April frost it would be a mercy as the plants are all busting out. Put out the hummingbird feeders yesterday, a bit early but I've seen them as early as late March. Box turtles in the pen fed yesterday, that's an early record. Based on recent history we're in for a hot, dry summer, again, no slack for the gardner or other life forms.

[Dhalgren]

Yeah, I am not looking forward to summer. Old folks around here (no, Kid, older than me) say it looks to be brutal...

[BitterLittleFlower]

Daffodils in full bloom at school today, I'm a couple hundred feet higher at home, but mine are budding...We're at least 3 weeks ahead if not a full month...my rose is leafing out, not just budding...find me a cave for the summer...and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission just approved full withdrawal from all permitted sources for hydrofracking...we're looking to a drought, who's going to get the water first...any bettors? I never, ever remember seeing trees budding this early...

[Dhalgren]

Daffodils in full bloom at school today, I'm a couple hundred feet higher at home, but mine are budding...We're at least 3 weeks ahead if not a full month...my rose is leafing out, not just budding...find me a cave for the summer...and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission just approved full withdrawal from all permitted sources for hydrofracking...we're looking to a drought, who's going to get the water first...any bettors? I never, ever remember seeing trees budding this early...

It is global-warming-freaky...I don't care if egg-head types say, "It is within seasonal norms." Fuck it - from experience, it is waaaay freaky...

[blindpig]

Daffodils in full bloom at school today, I'm a couple hundred feet higher at home, but mine are budding...We're at least 3 weeks ahead if not a full month...my rose is leafing out, not just budding...find me a cave for the summer...and the Susquehanna River Basin Commission just approved full withdrawal from all permitted sources for hydrofracking...we're looking to a drought, who's going to get the water first...any bettors? I never, ever remember seeing trees budding this early...

Local folk wisdom has it that if the American Redbuds are blooming then there will not be a frost. They're blooming and the first Dogwoods are coming out.



This fracking shit is such a glaring example of the fucked up priorities of capitalist society. Earthquakes, poisoned ground water, mere externals and nothing to get in the way of profits.

Like we ain't got reason enough..........

[BitterLittleFlower]

Local folk wisdom has it that if the American Redbuds are blooming then there will not be a frost. They're blooming and the first Dogwoods are coming out.



This fracking shit is such a glaring example of the fucked up priorities of capitalist society. Earthquakes, poisoned ground water, mere externals and nothing to get in the way of profits.

Like we ain't got reason enough..........

Always follow the money... and the waste dumps... (watch out what they wash your roads with, they don't know what to do with the millions of gallons of frack fluid and are giving it away for free to unsuspecting highway departments...)

Trying to create peak water because they can't figure out how to create peak sun or wind... Aquifers being bought up left and right... Robert Kennedy Jr. is selling bottled water in order to use the money to protect aquifers!!! Argh, Waterkeeper, Riverkeeper, LOVE HIM He's a liberal....

[blindpig]

Always follow the money... and the waste dumps... (watch out what they wash your roads with, they don't know what to do with the millions of gallons of frack fluid and are giving it away for free to unsuspecting highway departments...)

Trying to create peak water because they can't figure out how to create peak sun or wind... Aquifers being bought up left and right... Robert Kennedy Jr. is selling bottled water in order to use the money to protect aquifers!!! Argh, Waterkeeper, Riverkeeper, LOVE HIM He's a liberal....

To my knowledge they do not wash the roads around here, mebbe they'll use it as a cheap substitute for Roundup.

It is testimony to the wretchedness of the environmental movement that elitists lawyers are all the game they got. But scientists are so boring and too many are constrained by career considerations.

[blindpig]

So last month was the warmest March ever recorded, really? It is slightly cooler now with a few lows in the mid 40's remaining but it looks like we've dodged a frost. The winter birds are gone, some of the neotropical migrants have arrived, ruby throated hummingbirds, black and white warblers, whippoorwills. The tomatoes and chiles are in the ground but no appreciatable rain forcast for the next ten days, looks like another summer of water portage coming up. Amphibians are calling in the lowest numbers I have yet seen here, some species entirely absent, other in numbers you can count on one hand. Maybe it will get better but perhaps this is part of the trend noted worldwide. Something is badly awry and a rational economic system is the only possibility for addressing this in an effective manner.