John Zogby and Nate Silver: 2000-2008 True Vote vs. Recorded Vote Rankings

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

July 17, 2010

As discussed in my open letter to Nate Silver, his methodology for ranking pollsters is based on an invalid premise: that the recorded vote is an appropriate basis for measuring performance. Due to systemic election fraud, the recorded vote is not justified. The best measure is the True Vote, which is derived from total votes cast, rather than votes recorded. Using the Census value for total votes cast in the prior and current elections, we deduct four-year voter mortality and, combined with a best estimate turnout of living voters in the current election, we utilize National Exit Poll vote shares to calculate the True Vote.

Given the True Vote for the 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, we can measure pollster performance in predicting the vote. Good pollsters such as John Zogby should not be penalized in the rankings because of election fraud. Conversely, biased pollsters such as Rasmussen should not have been rewarded in Silver’s rankings for predicting a fraudulent recorded vote.

Reputable election analysts who have crunched the numbers agree that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and Democratic Landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and the 2008 presidential election.

The following tables illustrate pollster performance for the four elections against both the True Vote and the recorded vote. The rankings are straightforward; they are based on the deviation between the final poll (adjusted for undecided voters) and the True and recorded votes.

The projections allocated 75% of undecided votes to the Democrats, who were the challengers in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
In 2000, Clinton was the incumbent who had high approval and a strong economic record, therefore a 50/50 split was assumed in the undecided vote.
In 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating which declined to 25% in 2008. Obama was the de-facto challenger; McCain represented the incumbent.

Nate Silver ranks Zogby DEAD LAST. The historical record proves that Silver is DEAD WRONG.

This is what Zogby had to say just before Election Day 2004:
The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win… traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent.

And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times. In this instance you have a tie, a President who is not going over 48, undecideds who tell us by small percentages that the President deserves to be reelected. And in essence, it gives all the appearances that the undecideds -- the most important people in the world today -- have made up their minds about President Bush.

The only question left is: Can they vote for John Kerry? If it's a good turnout, look for a Kerry victory. If it's a lower turnout, it means that the President has succeeded in raising questions about John Kerry's fitness.

There was a very heavy turnout of 22 million first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000. In his Election Day polling, Zogby had Kerry winning by 50-47% with 311 electoral votes, indicating that 75% of undecided voters broke for Kerry. This was a virtual match to the 52-47% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate data later released in the Edison Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report.

Let’s review Zogby’s performance in the tables below:

In 1996, Zogby was within 0.3% of the recorded vote.
He ranked # 1.

In 2000, Zogby exactly matched Gore’s recorded vote.
He ranked #1
But there were 6 million uncounted votes.
Gore won by at least 3 million votes.
The election was stolen.

In 2004, Zogby was within 0.8% of the recorded vote.
His Election Day polling had Kerry by 50-47%.
Kerry’s True Vote was 53% - a 10 million margin.
The election was stolen.

In 2006, Zogby ranked #7.
The pre-election Generic Poll Trend Model forecast a 56.4% Democratic Landslide.
The unadjusted National Exit Poll had 56.4%.
The landslide was denied.

In 2008, Zogby was within 1.1% of the recorded vote.
He ranked # 4.
Obama had a 58% True Vote share and won by 22 million votes.
The landslide was denied.

So why is Zogby at the very bottom of Silver’s pollster rankings?


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75/25% Obama
Poll UVA Projection Recorded True
Obama 2008 Sample MoE Obama McCain Obama McCain AbsDiff AbsDiff
True 57.9 Recorded 52.87 45.62
Recorded 52.9 Average 2.87% 51.07 43.07 54.34 44.16 1.47 3.56
Exit Poll NA

1 Gallup RV 11/02 2847 1.84% 53 40 57.1 41.4 4.3 0.8
2 ABC/WP RV 11/02 2446 1.98% 54 41 56.6 41.9 3.8 1.3
3 CBS 10/31 1005 3.09% 54 41 56.6 41.9 3.8 1.3
4 Zogby 11/03 1201 2.83% 54 43 55.1 43.4 2.3 2.8
5 Marist 11/03 804 3.46% 52 43 54.6 43.9 1.8 3.3

6 Pew 11/01 2587 1.93% 49 42 54.6 43.9 1.8 3.3
7 NBC/WSJ 11/02 1011 3.08% 51 43 54.4 44.1 1.5 3.5
8 CNN 11/01 1017 3.07% 51 43 54.4 44.1 1.5 3.5
9 FOX News 11/03 971 3.14% 50 43 54.1 44.4 1.3 3.8
10 Marist 10/29 543 4.21% 50 43 54.1 44.4 1.3 3.8

11 Research2k 11/02 1100 2.95% 51 44 53.6 44.9 0.8 4.3
12 Hotline/FD 11/02 882 3.30% 50 45 52.6 45.9 0.2 5.3
13 FOX News 10/29 924 3.22% 47 44 52.6 45.9 0.2 5.3
14 Battleground 10/30 1000 3.10% 49 45 52.4 46.1 0.5 5.5
15 Rasmussen 11/02 3000 1.79% 51 46 52.1 46.4 0.7 5.8




75/ 25% Kerry
Poll UVA Projection Recorded True
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush AbsDiff AbsDiff
Kerry 2004 Recorded 48.28 50.72
True 53.2 Average 47.45 47.58 50.4 48.6 2.0 2.8
ExitPoll 52.0

1 AP 1020 49 46 52.0 47.0 3.7 1.2
2 Pew RV 1030 46 45 52.0 47.0 3.7 1.2
3 FOX 1031 48 46 51.8 47.3 3.5 1.5
4 Harris Online 1102 50 47 51.5 47.5 3.2 1.7
5 EconomistYouGov1027 50 47 51.5 47.5 3.2 1.7

6 LAT 1024 48 47 51.0 48.0 2.7 2.2
7 Dem Corp 1031 48 47 51.0 48.0 2.7 2.2
8 Marist 1031 48 47 51.0 48.0 2.7 2.2
9 ICR 1026 44 46 50.8 48.3 2.5 2.5
10 ARG 1030 48 48 50.3 48.8 2.0 3.0

11 NBC 1031 47 48 50.0 49.0 1.7 3.2
12 TIPP 1031 44 47 50.0 49.0 1.7 3.2
13 Gallup 1031 49 49 49.8 49.3 1.5 3.5
14 ABC/WP 1030 48 49 49.5 49.5 1.2 3.7
15 Newsweek 1029 45 48 49.5 49.5 1.2 3.7

16 Zogby 1102 49.1 49.4 49.5 49.5 1.2 3.7
17 CBS 1031 47 49 49.3 49.8 1.0 4.0
18 Time 1021 46 51 47.5 51.5 0.8 5.7

Election Day
Zogby 1102 50 47 51.5 47.5 3.2 1.7


75/25% Dem
UVA Projection Recorded True
Dem 2006 Dem Rep Dem Rep AbsDiff AbsDiff
True 56.4 Average 51.36 38.27 57.64 40.36 5.64 3.14
ExitPoll 56.4

1 TIME 1103 55 40 57.3 40.8 5.3 0.9
2 Newsweek 1103 54 38 58.5 39.5 6.5 2.1
3 FOX. 1106 49 36 58.8 39.3 6.8 2.4
4 NBC 1030 52 37 58.8 39.3 6.8 2.4
5 CNN 1106 58 38 59.5 38.5 7.5 3.1

6 USA/ Gallup 1106 51 44 53.3 44.8 1.3 3.2
7 Zogby 1025 44 33 59.8 38.3 7.8 3.4
8 Pew 1104 47 43 53.0 45.0 1.0 3.4
9 ABC 1104 51 45 52.5 45.5 0.5 3.9
10 Hotline 1023 52 34 61.0 37.0 9.0 4.6
11 CBS/NYT 1101 52 33 61.8 36.3 9.8 5.4



50/50% Gore
Recorded UVA Projection Recorded True
Gore 2000 Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other AbsDiff AbsDiff

True 50.4 48.4 47.9 2.9 48.3 47.7 4.0 0.2 2.0
Exit Poll 49.4

Average 45.7 47.3 4.3 47.1 48.7 4.3 1.4 3.4

1 Zogby 48 46 5 48.5 46.5 5.0 0.1 1.9
2 CBS 45 44 4 48.5 47.5 4.0 0.1 1.9
3 Harris 47 47 5 47.5 47.5 5.0 0.9 2.9
4 Pew Research 47 49 4 47.0 49.0 4.0 1.4 3.4
5 Gallup/CNN 46 48 4 47.0 49.0 4.0 1.4 3.4

6 IBD/CSM/TIPP 46 48 4 47.0 49.0 4.0 1.4 3.4
7 ABC/WPost 45 48 3 47.0 50.0 3.0 1.4 3.4
8 NBC/WSJ 44 47 3 47.0 50.0 3.0 1.4 3.4
9 Battleground 45 50 4 45.5 50.5 4.0 2.9 4.9
10 ICR 44 46 7 45.5 47.5 7.0 2.9 4.9