1972-2004 Final National Exit Poll Demographics
(Final NEP shares and/or weights are adjusted to FORCE A MATCH to the recorded vote)

2004 NEP Timeline (following 1972-2004 historical trend) shows how it was done

[code]
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Chg

OVERALL
Voted Dem 36 50 41 40 45 43 49 48 48 0
Voted Rep 61 48 51 59 53 38 41 48 51 3
Voted Ind -- -- 7 -- -- 19 8 4 1 (3)


PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
Dem Dem 78 80 63 82 92 83 85 82 90 8
Dem Rep 18 26 29 18 7 5 9 15 10 (5)
Dem Ind -- -- 6 -- -- 12 4 3 0 (3)

Rep Dem 9 18 11 11 19 21 13 7 9 2
Rep Rep 90 73 83 88 80 59 82 91 91 0
Rep Ind -- -- 6 -- -- 20 4 2 0 (2)


FIRST-TIME VOTERS
Vote Dem 38 47 46 54 52 53 1
Vote Rep 61 51 32 34 43 46 3
Vote Ind -- -- 22 11 5 1 (4)


SEX
Men Dem 36 50 36 37 41 41 43 42 44 2
Men Rep 62 48 55 62 57 38 44 53 55 2
Men Ind -- -- 7 -- -- 21 10 5 1 (4)

Women Dem 37 50 45 44 49 45 54 54 51 (3)
Women Rep 61 48 47 56 50 37 38 43 48 5
Women Ind -- -- 7 -- -- 17 7 3 1 (2)

RACE & ETHNICITY
White Dem 31 47 36 35 40 39 43 42 41 (1)
White Rep 67 52 56 64 59 40 46 54 58 4
White Ind -- -- 7 -- -- 20 9 4 1 (3)

Black Dem 82 83 85 90 86 83 84 90 88 (2)
Black Rep 18 16 11 9 12 10 12 8 11 3
Black Ind -- -- 3 -- -- 7 4 2 1 (1)

HispanicDem 63 76 59 62 69 61 72 67 56 (11)
HispanicRep 35 24 33 37 30 25 21 31 43 12
HispanicInd -- -- 6 -- -- 14 6 2 1 (1)

Asian Dem * * 31 43 54 58 4
Asian Rep 55 48 41 41 0
Asian Ind 15 8 5 1 (4)

HispanicDem 62 53 (9)
origin Rep 35 44 9
Ind 3 3 0

AGE
18-29 Dem 46 51 44 40 47 43 53 48 54 6
18-29 Rep 52 47 43 59 52 34 34 46 45 (1)
18-29 Ind -- -- 11 -- -- 22 10 4 1 (3)

30-44 Dem 33 49 36 42 45 41 48 48 46 (2)
30-44 Rep 64 49 55 57 54 38 41 49 53 4
30-44 Ind -- -- 8 -- -- 21 9 3 1 (2)

45-59 Dem 33 47 39 40 42 41 48 48 48 0
45-59 Rep 64 52 55 60 57 40 41 49 51 2
45-59 Ind -- -- 5 -- -- 19 9 3 1 (2)

60+ Dem 31 47 41 39 49 50 48 51 46 (5)
60+ Rep 68 52 54 60 50 38 44 47 54 7
60+ Ind -- -- 4 -- -- 12 7 2 0 (2)

FAMILY STATUS
Married Dem 38 42 40 44 44 42 (2)
Married Rep 62 57 41 46 53 57 4
Married Ind -- -- 20 9 3 1 (2)

Single Dem 47 53 51 57 57 58 1
Single Rep 52 46 30 31 38 40 2
Singled Ind -- -- 19 9 5 2 (3)

Child<18 Dem 44 40 48 45 45 0
Child<18 Rep 55 38 41 52 53 1
Child<18 Ind -- 22 9 3 2 (1)

GLB Dem 72 66 71 77 6
GLB Rep 14 22 25 23 (2)
GLB Ind 14 7 4 0 (4)

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Chg

POLITICAL ID
Rep Dem 6 9 9 7 8 10 13 8 6 (2)
Rep Rep 93 90 86 92 91 73 80 91 93 2
Rep Ind -- -- 4 -- -- 17 6 1 1 0

Ind Dem 33 43 30 36 43 38 43 45 49 4
Ind Rep 65 54 55 63 55 32 35 47 48 1
Ind Ind -- -- 12 -- -- 30 17 8 3 (5)


Dem Dem 33 77 67 74 82 77 84 86 89 3
Dem Rep 64 22 26 25 17 10 10 11 11 0
Dem Ind -- -- 6 -- -- 13 5 3 0 (3)

Lib Dem 71 60 70 81 68 78 80 85 5
Lib Rep 26 25 28 18 14 11 13 13 0
Lib Ind -- 11 -- -- 18 7 7 2 (5)

Mod Dem 51 42 47 50 47 57 52 54 2
Mod Rep 48 49 53 49 31 33 44 45 1
Mod Ind -- 8 -- -- 21 9 4 1 (3)

Con Dem 29 23 17 19 18 20 17 15 (2)
Con Rep 70 73 82 80 64 71 81 84 3
Con Ind -- 4 -- -- 18 8 2 1 (1)

Rep lib Dem 17 17 11 27 17 44 31 22 (9)
Rep lib Rep 82 78 88 73 54 48 67 78 11
Rep lib Ind -- 5 -- -- 30 9 2 0 (2)

Rep mod Dem 11 10 7 12 15 20 11 11 0
Rep mod Rep 88 83 93 87 63 72 88 88 0
Rep mod Ind -- 7 -- -- 21 7 1 1 0

Rep con Dem 6 5 4 4 5 6 4 3 (1)
Rep con Rep 93 91 95 95 82 88 95 97 2
Rep con Ind -- 3 -- -- 13 5 1 0 (1)

Ind lib Dem 64 51 58 71 54 58 68 79 11
Ind lib Rep 29 26 40 26 17 15 17 17 0
Ind lib Ind -- 17 -- -- 30 18 15 4 (11)

Ind mod Dem 45 30 42 47 43 50 48 51 3
Ind mod Rep 53 53 57 51 28 30 45 47 2
Ind mod Ind -- 14 -- -- 30 17 7 2 (5)

Ind con Dem 26 18 13 20 17 19 17 21 4
Ind con Rep 72 75 85 77 53 60 79 76 (3)
Ind con Ind -- 6 -- -- 30 19 4 3 (1)

Dem lib Dem 86 73 88 93 85 89 91 95 4
Dem lib Rep 12 14 11 6 5 5 5 4 (1)
Dem lib Ind -- 10 -- -- 11 4 4 1 (3)

Dem mod Dem 77 67 78 81 76 84 86 87 1
Dem mod Rep 22 27 22 18 9 10 12 13 1
Dem mod Ind -- 5 -- -- 15 5 2 0 (2)

Dem con Dem 64 56 54 65 61 69 73 76 3
Dem con Rep 35 39 46 34 23 23 26 23 (3)
Dem con Ind -- 4 -- -- 16 7 1 1 0

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Chg

RELIGION
Prot Dem 28 44 35 32 38 36 41 40 40 0
Prot Rep 70 55 59 67 61 45 50 58 59 1
Prot Ind -- -- 6 -- -- 18 8 2 1 (1)

W Prot Dem 22 41 31 27 33 33 36 34 32 (2)
W Prot Rep 76 58 63 72 66 47 53 63 67 4
W Prot Ind -- -- 6 -- -- 21 10 3 1 (2)

Cath Dem 44 54 42 45 47 44 53 49 47 (2)
Cath Rep 54 44 50 54 52 35 37 47 52 5
Cath Ind -- -- 7 -- -- 20 9 4 1 (3)

Jewish Dem 64 64 45 67 64 80 78 79 74 (5)
Jewish Rep 34 34 39 31 35 11 16 19 25 6
Jewish Ind -- -- 15 -- -- 9 3 2 1 (1)

Church Attendance
>1/wk Dem 36 39 39 0
>1/wk Rep 48 59 61 2
>1/wk Ind 15 2 0 (2)

SIZE OF PLACE
>500k Dem 56 62 58 68 71 60 (11)
>500k Rep 43 37 28 25 26 39 13
>500k Ind -- -- 13 6 3 1 (2)

50-500k Dem 40 52 50 50 57 49 (8)
50-500k Rep 58 47 33 39 40 49 9
50-500k Ind -- -- 16 8 3 2 (1)

Suburbs Dem 33 35 38 42 41 47 47 47 0
Suburbs Rep 65 55 61 57 39 42 49 52 3
Suburbs Ind -- 9 -- -- 21 8 4 1 (3)

10-50k Dem 40 38 39 48 38 48 10
10-50k Rep 57 61 42 41 59 50 (9)
10-50k Ind -- -- 20 9 3 2 (1)

Rural Dem 30 39 32 44 39 44 37 40 3
Rural Rep 68 55 67 55 40 46 59 59 0
Rural Ind -- 5 -- -- 20 10 4 1 (3)

FAMILY INCOME
0-15k Dem 58 59 57 63 6
0-15k Rep 23 28 37 36 (1)
0-15k Ind 19 11 6 1 (5)

$15k+ Dem 45 53 54 57 3
$15k+ Rep 35 36 41 42 1
$15k+ Ind 20 9 5 1 (4)

$30k+ Dem 41 48 49 50 1
$30k+ Rep 38 40 48 49 1
$30k+ Ind 21 10 3 1 (2)

$50k+ Dem 40 47 46 43 (3)
$50k+ Rep 41 45 51 56 5
$50k+ Ind 18 7 3 1 (2)

$75k+ Dem 44 45 45 0
$75k+ Rep 48 52 55 3
$75k+ Ind 7 3 0 (3)

$200k+ Dem 35 35
$200k+ Rep 63 63
$200k+ Ind 2 2

$100k+ Dem 32 38 43 41 (2)
$100k+ Rep 65 54 54 58 4
$100k+ Ind -- 6 3 1 (2)

$50k+ Dem 26 30 37 39 44 45 43 (2)
$50k+ Rep 64 69 62 44 48 52 56 4
$50k+ Ind 10 -- -- 17 7 3 1 (2)

FAMILY'S FINANCIAL SITUATION
Better Dem 30 55 14 24 66 61 19 (42)
Better Rep 70 37 86 61 26 36 80 44
Better Ind -- 7 -- 14 6 3 1 (2)

Same Dem 51 47 50 41 46 35 50 15
Same Rep 49 46 50 42 45 60 49 (11)
Same Ind -- 7 -- 17 8 5 1 (4)

Worse Dem 77 25 85 60 27 33 79 46
Worse Rep 23 66 15 14 57 63 20 (43)
Worse Ind -- 8 -- 25 13 4 1 (3)

UNION HOUSEHOLDS
UNION Dem 47 59 49 53 57 55 59 59 59 0
UNION Rep 50 39 44 46 42 24 30 37 40 3
UNION Ind 6 -- -- 21 9 4 1 (3)


1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Chg

EDUCATION
No HS Dem 51 50 56 54 59 59 50 (9)
No HS Rep 46 50 43 28 28 39 49 10
No HS Ind 2 -- -- 18 11 2 1 (1)

HS Grad Dem 43 39 49 43 51 48 47 (1)
HS Grad Rep 51 60 50 36 35 49 52 3
HS Grad Ind 4 -- -- 21 13 3 1 (2)

College
Some Dem 35 38 42 41 48 45 46 1
Some Rep 55 61 57 37 40 51 54 3
Some Ind 8 -- -- 21 10 4 0 (4)

Grad Dem 35 41 43 44 47 48 49 1
Grad Rep 52 58 56 39 44 48 49 1
Grad Ind 11 -- -- 17 7 4 2 (2)

Grad+ Dem 37 39 44 45 46 1
Grad+ Rep 62 41 46 51 52 1
Grad+ Ind -- 20 8 4 2 (2)

PostG Dem 48 50 52 52 55 3
PostG Rep 50 36 40 44 44 0
PostG Ind -- 14 5 4 1 (3)



CONGRESSIONAL VOTE
Dem Dem 75 69 76 72 74 84 85 88 3
Dem Rep 23 22 23 27 11 8 11 11 0
Dem Ind -- 7 -- -- 15 7 4 1 (3)

Rep Dem 12 11 7 17 10 15 12 9 (3)
Rep Rep 87 83 93 82 72 76 86 91 5
Rep Ind -- 5 -- -- 18 8 2 0 (2)



______________________________________________________________________________

2004 National Exit Poll
Timeline Summary

NEP Sample Poll Kerry Vote
Update Size MoE Share Margin

3:59pm 8349 1.29% 51.01% 4.96m
7:38pm 11027 1.12% 50.90% 4.66m
12:22am 13047 1.03% 51.20% 4.53m
Final 13660 1.01% 48.48% -3.22m


Election Model projection (2-party)
Kerry 51.80%
Bush 48.20%

12:22am National Exit poll (2-party)
Voted 2000
Kerry 51.87%
Bush 48.13%


Voted 2000
(3200 Respondents)

11/02 3:59pm Vote Shares Votes (in millions)
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 18.34 15% 62% 37% 1% 11.37 6.79 0.18
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 51.35 42% 9% 90% 0% 4.62 46.22 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 61% 12% 16% 2.98 0.59 0.78

Total 122.3 100% 51.01% 46.95% 1.18% 62.37 57.41 1.44


11/02 7:38pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 59% 39% 1% 12.26 8.11 0.21
Gore 46.46 38% 91% 8% 1% 42.28 3.72 0.46
Bush 50.13 41% 9% 90% 0% 4.51 45.12 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 65% 13% 16% 3.18 0.64 0.78

Total 122.3 100% 50.90% 47.09% 1.19% 62.24 57.58 1.46



11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other MoE
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42 1.71%
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.40 3.82 0.48 0.94%
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00 1.04%
Other 3.67 3% 64% 17% 19% 2.35 0.62 0.70 1.41%

Total 122.3 100% 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 62.61 58.08 1.59 1.73%


11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29

Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50

______________________________________________________________________________

2004 NEP Demographic Timeline

In order to match the recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll ”Voted in 2000”
category, the exit pollsters had to adjust all category weights and/or vote shares
from the 12:22am update which Kerry won by 51.2-47.5%.

Change: Category weight and/or Kerry vote share decline required to match the final recorded vote


NEP Update 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Weight 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Vote
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change

Category Weight Kerry Vote Share
GENDER
Male 42 46 46 46 47 47 47 44 -3
Female 58 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.48 50.78 50.78 47.78
VOTE (mil) 61.72 62.08 62.08 58.42

REGION
East 23 22 22 22 58 58 58 56 -2
Midwest 25 26 26 26 50 50 50 48 -2
South 31 31 31 32 +1 44 45 45 42 -3
West 21 21 21 20 -1 53 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.61 50.84 50.84 48.24
VOTE 61.88 62.16 62.16 58.98

PARTY ID
Democrat 39 38 38 37 -1 90 90 90 89 -1
Republican 36 36 35 37 +2 7 7 7 6 -1
Independent 25 26 27 26 -1 52 52 52 49 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.24 50.69 47.89
VOTE 61.89 61.42 61.97 58.55

IDEOLOGY
Liberal 22 22 22 21 -1 86 87 86 85 -1
Moderate 45 45 45 45 58 57 57 54 -3
Conservative 33 33 33 34 +1 16 16 16 15 -1
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.3 50.07 49.85 47.25
VOTE 61.50 61.22 60.95 57.77


VOTED 2000
DNV 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 -3
Gore 39 38 39 37 -2 91 91 91 90 -1
Bush 42 41 41 43 +2 9 9 10 9 -1
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 64 71
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.20 48.48
VOTE 62.36 62.23 62.61 59.27


WHEN DECIDED
Today 6 6 6 5 -1 52 54 53 52 -1
Last 3 Days 3 3 3 4 +1 50 54 53 55 +2
Last Week 2 2 2 2 48 48 48 48
Last Month 10 10 10 10 61 61 60 54 -6
Over 30 Days 79 79 79 79 50 50 50 46 -4
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.18 51.42 51.23 47.5
VOTE 62.57 62.87 62.63 58.07

EDUCATION
No High School 4 4 4 4 50 52 52 50 -2
High School Grad 22 22 22 22 50 51 51 47 -4
Some College 30 31 31 32 +1 48 47 47 46 -1
College Grad 26 26 26 26 48 49 48 46 -2
Post Grad 18 17 17 16 -1 58 58 58 55 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.32 50.34 50.21 47.82
VOTE 61.52 61.55 61.39 58.46


RACE/GENDER
White Male 33 36 36 36 40 41 41 37 -4
White Female 44 41 41 41 47 47 47 44 -3
Non-white Male 10 10 10 10 69 70 69 67 -2
Non-white Female 13 13 13 13 77 77 77 75 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.79 51.04 50.94 47.81
VOTE 62.10 62.40 62.28 58.45


AGE
18-29 15 17 17 17 56 56 56 54 -2
30-44 27 27 29 29 48 49 49 46 -3
45-59 31 30 30 30 52 51 51 48 -3
60+ 27 26 24 24 48 48 48 46 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.44 50.53 50.26 47.96
VOTE 61.67 61.78 61.47 58.64

INCOME
0-15k 9 9 9 8 -1 68 66 66 63 -3
15-30 15 15 15 15 59 59 59 57 -2
30-50 22 22 22 22 53 52 52 50 -2
50-75 22 23 23 23 46 45 45 43 -2
75-100 14 13 13 14 +1 49 49 49 45 -4
100-150 11 11 11 11 44 45 45 42 -3
150-200 4 4 4 4 45 47 47 42 -5
200+ 3 3 3 3 40 41 41 35 -6
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.45 51.01 51.01 48.13
VOTE 62.90 62.36 62.36 58.84

RELIGION
Protestant 53 53 53 53 43 43 43 40 -3
Catholic 27 27 27 27 50 50 50 47 -3
Jewish 3 3 3 3 77 77 77 74 -3
Other 7 7 7 7 76 75 75 74 -1
None 10 10 10 10 69 70 70 67 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.82 50.85 50.85 47.99
VOTE 62.13 62.17 62.17 58.67

MILITARY EXPERIENCE
Yes 18 18 18 18 43 43 43 41 -2
No 82 82 82 82 52 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.38 51.2 51.2 48.38
VOTE 61.59 62.60 62.60 59.15