Get Ready For Another Stolen Election

[TruthIsAll]

Get Ready for Another Stolen Election

Polls showing a Democratic landslide assume a fraud-free election.

Will the GOP steal the election again?
Does Diebold switch votes?
Can there be any doubt?
The Repugs have stolen the last three elections.
It's the only way they can win.

Bush and Cheney are confident that they will retain the House and Senate.
Why?
They have the means:
The DREs are certified to be hacked.

They have the motive:
They fear Democratic investigations into 9/11, Iraq,
torture, warrantless spying, the outing of Valerie Plame, etc....

They have the opportunity:
The Dems who could have done something are still drinking DLC kool-aid.

Here is the trend in Generic House of Representative Congressional polls
over the past 12 months:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmod...4_image001.png

http://www.geocities.com/electionmod...2_image001.png

The source:
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

As you can see from the chart, the Democrats have a 10.6% average lead in the polls. But the latest Gallup poll has the Dems leading by 23%. They've won EVERY poll, except for a TIE in the Sept.17 Gallup. The lead has been increasing over the past year. The Democratic trendline has a slightly positive slope while the Republican trendline is flat.

The steady Democratic margin cannot be just a series of random events. Based on the lead, the probability of winning the House is overwhelming. However, in every election, about 3% of the (mostly Democratic) votes are never counted due to spoiled and lost ballots; figure a 1.5% net loss for the Democrats. We must also take voter disenfranchisement (mostly Democratic) into account. The new Voter ID requirement will add millions of former (mostly Democratic) voters to the total number disenfranchised. So the true Democratic lead is probably only 5-7%. This can only be overcome by the GOP through outright fraud using DRE and central tabulator vote switching. Keeping the House would require Diebolding 10-30 elections.

If on election day, there is a net 5% Democratic average lead in the final 5-polls (1.41% MoE), then the probability that the GOP will win a majority of the Generic vote is 2.1E-12, or 1 in 471 BILLION.

So why the hell even do we even bother to track the polls?

____________________________________________________


[code]
Probability Matrix of a Republican Majority
for a given Democratic lead and number of polls
(before switched/spoiled/lost votes, voter disenfranchisement, etc.)
----
Dem Number of Polls
Lead 1 3 5 10
.... ----------Probability------------
10% 2.9E-10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9% 1.2E-08 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8% 3.6E-07 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7% 7.2E-06 2.9E-14 0.00% 0.00%
6% 1.0E-04 6.0E-11 0.00% 0.00%
_________________________________________

5% 9.7E-04 4.0E-08 2.1E-12 0.00%
_________________________________________

4% 6.6E-03 8.8E-06 1.5E-08 2.2E-15
3% 3.1E-02 6.4E-04 1.6E-05 2.1E-09
2% 10.76% 1.59% 0.28% 4.4E-05
1% 26.77% 14.15% 8.29% 2.50%
0% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00%

__________________________________________________________________

Democratic average poll based on type:
RV 48.9% (registered voters)
LV 48.5% (likely voters)
____________________________________________________

Dem3: Democratic 3-poll moving average
Rep3: Republican 3-poll moving average
Diff: Dem - Rep
Diff3: Dem3 - Rep3
----

Poll Survey Dates REP DEM Other Diff Rep3 Dem3 Diff3
Number Average All 38.2 48.9 12.8 10.7 38.2 48.9 10.7
2005
1 * Newsweek RV. 905 38 50 12 12 39.0 51.0 12.0
2 * Pew RV...... 911 40 52 8 12 39.8 50.0 10.3
3 * DemCorp LV.. 921 39 48 13 9 40.5 49.0 8.5
4 * Newsweek RV. 930 42 47 11 5 40.8 47.0 6.3
5 * DemCorp LV.. 1010 41 46 14 5 41.3 46.7 5.3
---
6 * GWU LV...... 1012 41 47 13 6 37.7 44.3 6.7
7 Hotline RV.. 1016 31 40 29 9 37.0 45.0 8.0
8 * DemCorp LV.. 1023 39 48 12 9 37.7 46.0 8.3
9 * Gallup RV... 1023 43 50 7 7 39.7 50.0 10.3
10 * ABC/WP RV... 1102 37 52 12 15 40.0 50.0 10.0
---
11 * DemCorp LV.. 1106 40 48 12 8 37.7 51.0 13.3
12 * Newsweek RV. 1105 36 53 11 17 37.0 47.3 10.3
13 Hotline RV.. 1115 35 41 24 6 37.3 47.3 10.0
14 * DemCorp LV.. 1120 41 48 11 7 37.3 45.7 8.3
15 * Time RV.... 1201 36 48 15 12 38.7 48.3 9.7
---
16 * DemCorp LV.. 1204 39 49 12 10 36.0 46.3 10.3
17 * CBS/NYT RV. 1206 33 42 25 9 37.7 46.7 9.0
18 * DemCorp LV.. 1212 41 49 9 8 35.7 44.7 9.0
19 Hotline RV.. 1213 33 43 25 10 37.0 45.7 8.7
20 * NPR LV..... 1218 37 45 17 8 37.0 46.3 9.3
21 * ABC/WP RV... 1218 41 51 9 10 40.3 48.3 8.0
---
2006
---
22 * Gallup RV... 108 43 49 8 6 39.3 47.7 8.3
23 * CBS/NYT RV. 125 34 43 23 9 39.3 47.0 7.7
24 * DemCorp LV.. 125 41 49 10 8 37.7 48.7 11.0
25 * ABC/WP RV... 126 38 54 9 16 40.0 51.0 11.0
---
26 * Pew RV...... 205 41 50 9 9 40.7 51.3 10.7
27 * Gallup RV... 212 43 50 8 7 41.7 48.7 7.0
28 * GWU LV...... 215 41 46 14 5 38.3 47.3 9.0
29 Hotline RV.. 219 31 46 23 15 37.3 46.7 9.3
30 * DemCorp LV.. 227 40 48 12 8 36.7 49.0 12.3
---
31 * Gallup RV... 301 39 53 7 14 37.7 49.7 12.0
32 FOX LV..... 301 34 48 18 14 37.3 52.0 14.7
33 * Gallup RV... 312 39 55 7 16 36.7 51.7 15.0
34 * NPR LV........ 314 37 52 11 15 38.3 52.3 14.0
35 * Newsweek RV. 317 39 50 11 11 39.0 50.7 11.7
---
36 * Time RV.... 323 41 50 9 9 38.0 48.0 10.0
37 * CBS RV......... 409 34 44 22 10 38.3 49.7 11.3
38 * ABC/WP RV... 409 40 55 5 15 38.7 50.3 11.7
39 * Gallup RV... 409 42 52 6 10 41.0 52.7 11.7
40 * Pew RV...... 416 41 51 8 10 41.0 51.0 10.0
---
41 * CNN RV......... 423 40 50 9 10 37.7 48.3 10.7
42 * Cook........... 430 32 44 24 12 37.0 49.3 12.3
43 * Gallup RV... 430 39 54 7 15 36.3 46.3 10.0
44 FOX LV..... 503 38 41 21 3 38.3 49.0 10.7
45 * CNN RV ..... 507 38 52 10 14 36.3 45.7 9.3
---
46 * CBS/NYT RV. 508 33 44 23 11 36.7 48.7 12.0
47 * Newsweek RV. 512 39 50 11 11 37.3 48.7 11.3
48 * ABC/WP RV... 515 40 52 9 12 38.3 47.0 8.7
49 * Fabrizio LV. 517 36 39 25 3 37.3 44.3 7.0
50 Hotline RV.. 521 36 42 22 6 38.0 44.0 6.0
---
51 * Gallup RV... 604 42 51 7 9 39.0 48.0 9.0
52 * Gallup RV... 611 39 51 10 12 38.0 49.3 11.3
53 FOX LV..... 614 33 46 20 13 36.7 47.3 10.7
54 * CNN RV ..... 615 38 45 16 7 36.7 47.3 10.7
55 * Pew RV...... 619 39 51 10 12 37.7 45.7 8.0
---
56 Hotline RV.. 625 36 41 24 5 38.0 48.0 10.0
57 * ABC/WP RV... 625 39 52 9 13 37.7 49.0 11.3
58 * Gallup RV... 625 38 54 7 16 37.3 51.0 13.7
59 * TIME LV.... 629 35 47 18 12 38.0 50.7 12.7
60 * Gallup RV... 709 41 51 9 10 38.7 49.7 11.0
---
61 * AP-Ipsos RV. 712 40 51 9 11 38.3 48.0 9.7
62 FOX LV..... 712 34 42 25 8 35.3 47.0 11.7
63 Hotline RV.. 723 32 48 20 16 33.7 45.0 11.3
64 * CBS/NYT RV. 725 35 45 20 10 35.7 48.0 12.3
65 * Gallup RV... 770 40 51 8 11 38.3 49.7 11.3
---
66 * CNN RV ..... 803 40 53 7 13 39.7 52.0 12.3
67 * ABC/WP RV... 806 39 52 8 13 38.7 53.3 14.7
68 * AP-Ipsos RV. 809 37 55 8 18 35.3 51.7 16.3
69 FOX LV..... 809 30 48 22 18 36.0 51.0 15.0
70 * Gallup RV... 810 41 50 9 9 36.7 49.7 13.0
---
71 * Newsweek RV. 811 39 51 10 12 40.3 50.3 10.0
72 * Pew RV...... 813 41 50 9 9 37.7 47.0 9.3
73 Hotline RV.. 820 33 40 27 7 39.7 45.7 6.0
74 * Gallup RV... 820 45 47 7 2 40.3 46.3 6.0
75 * CNN RV ..... 820 43 52 6 9 40.0 48.7 8.7
---
76 * CBS/NYT RV. 821 32 47 21 15 38.3 50.0 11.7
77 * TIME LV.... 824 40 51 9 11 36.7 49.3 12.7
78 * Newsweek RV. 825 38 50 12 12 36.7 49.7 13.0
79 FOX LV..... 830 32 48 21 16 37.7 50.3 12.7
80 * CNN LV ..... 902 43 53 4 10 39.0 50.3 11.3
---
81 * ABC RV......... 907 42 50 9 8 41.3 51.0 9.7
82 * Pew RV...... 910 39 50 11 11 40.7 51.0 10.3
83 * Gallup RV... 910 41 53 7 12 39.3 48.0 8.7
84 FOX LV..... 913 38 41 21 3 42.3 47.3 5.0
85 *Gallup LV...... 917 48 48 4 0 40.3 46.3 6.0
---
86 * CBS/NYT RV. 919 35 50 15 15 41.7 51.0 9.3
87 * CNN LV ..... 924 42 55 3 13 38.3 51.3 13.0
88 FOX LV..... 927 38 49 14 11 37.7 49.0 11.3
89 Hotline RV.. 927 33 43 24 10 34.7 44.7 10.0
90 Zogby LV....... 928 33 42 25 9 36.0 46.0 10.0
---
91 * CNN LV......... 1002 42 53 5 11 37.7 49.3 11.6
92 * AP-Ipsos RV. 1004 38 51 11 13 40.3 52.3 11.9
93 * Pew RV...... 1004 41 51 8 10 39.3 51.8 12.4
94 * TIME LV.... 1005 39 54 7 15 39.7 52.0 12.3
95 * Newsweek RV. 1006 39 51 7 12 39.7 54.3 14.6
---
96 * ABC RV......... 1008 41 54 5 13 39.0 55.5 16.5
97 * CNN LV......... 1008 37 58 5 21 38.0 57.0 19.0
98 *Gallup LV...... 1008 36 59 4 23 36.5 58.5 22.0

[Virgil]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/us...rtner=homepage


WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 — A growing number of state and local officials are getting cold feet about electronic voting technology, and many are making last-minute efforts to limit or reverse the rollout of new machines in the November elections.

Less than two months before voters head to the polls, Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. of Maryland this week became the most recent official to raise concerns publicly. Mr. Ehrlich, a Republican, said he lacked confidence in the state’s new $106 million electronic voting system and suggested a return to paper ballots.

Dozens of states have adopted electronic voting technology to comply with federal legislation in 2002 intended to phase out old-fashioned lever and punch-card machines after the “hanging chads” confusion of the 2000 presidential election.

But some election officials and voting experts say they fear that the new technology may have only swapped old problems for newer, more complicated ones. Their concerns became more urgent after widespread problems with the new technology were reported this year in primaries in Ohio, Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland and elsewhere.

This year, about one-third of all precincts nationwide are using the electronic voting technology for the first time, raising the chance of problems at the polls as workers struggle to adjust to the new system.

<snipped>

[TruthIsAll]

There is a strong Democratic trend in the Generic House polls. They lead the GOP by 16.5% in the 3-poll Moving Average, a 7% increase in the last month. The Democratic trend has been increasing lock-step with the decrease in Other (undecided) voters. The GOP trend has been flat all year - at 39%. If the long-term linear trend continues, the Dems will win the Generic vote in a 61-39 LANDSLIDE.

Table headings:
Dem: Democratic poll%
Rep: Republican poll%
Diff: Dem - Rep

Dem3: Democratic 3-poll moving average
Rep3: Republican 3-poll moving average
Diff3:Dem3 - Rep3

Poll Type Survey Dates REP DEM Other Diff Rep3 Dem3 Diff3
Number Average All 38.2 49.1 12.7 10.8 38.3 49.1 10.8
2005
1 RV * Newsweek RV. 905 38 50 12 12 39.0 51.0 12.0
2 RV * Pew RV...... 911 40 52 8 12 39.8 50.0 10.3
3 LV * DemCorp LV.. 921 39 48 13 9 40.5 49.0 8.5
4 RV * Newsweek RV. 930 42 47 11 5 40.8 47.0 6.3
5 LV * DemCorp LV.. 1010 41 46 14 5 41.3 46.7 5.3

6 LV * GWU LV...... 1012 41 47 13 6 37.7 44.3 6.7
7 RV Hotline RV.. 1016 31 40 29 9 37.0 45.0 8.0
8 LV * DemCorp LV.. 1023 39 48 12 9 37.7 46.0 8.3
9 RV * Gallup RV... 1023 43 50 7 7 39.7 50.0 10.3
10 RV * ABC/WP RV... 1102 37 52 12 15 40.0 50.0 10.0

11 LV * DemCorp LV.. 1106 40 48 12 8 37.7 51.0 13.3
12 RV * Newsweek RV. 1105 36 53 11 17 37.0 47.3 10.3
13 RV Hotline RV.. 1115 35 41 24 6 37.3 47.3 10.0
14 LV * DemCorp LV.. 1120 41 48 11 7 37.3 45.7 8.3
15 RV * Time RV.... 1201 36 48 15 12 38.7 48.3 9.7

16 LV * DemCorp LV.. 1204 39 49 12 10 36.0 46.3 10.3
17 RV * CBS/NYT RV. 1206 33 42 25 9 37.7 46.7 9.0
18 LV * DemCorp LV.. 1212 41 49 9 8 35.7 44.7 9.0
19 RV Hotline RV...1213 33 43 25 10 37.0 45.7 8.7
20 LV * NPR LV...... 1218 37 45 17 8 37.0 46.3 9.3
21 RV * ABC/WP RV... 1218 41 51 9 10 40.3 48.3 8.0

2006
22 RV * Gallup RV... 108 43 49 8 6 39.3 47.7 8.3
23 RV * CBS/NYT RV. 125 34 43 23 9 39.3 47.0 7.7
24 LV * DemCorp LV.. 125 41 49 10 8 37.7 48.7 11.0
25 RV * ABC/WP RV... 126 38 54 9 16 40.0 51.0 11.0

26 RV * Pew RV...... 205 41 50 9 9 40.7 51.3 10.7
27 RV * Gallup RV... 212 43 50 8 7 41.7 48.7 7.0
28 LV * GWU LV...... 215 41 46 14 5 38.3 47.3 9.0
29 RV Hotline RV.. 219 31 46 23 15 37.3 46.7 9.3
30 LV * DemCorp LV.. 227 40 48 12 8 36.7 49.0 12.3

31 RV * Gallup RV... 301 39 53 7 14 37.7 49.7 12.0
32 RV FOX LV..... 301 34 48 18 14 37.3 52.0 14.7
33 RV * Gallup RV... 312 39 55 7 16 36.7 51.7 15.0
34 LV * NPR LV......314 37 52 11 15 38.3 52.3 14.0
35 RV * Newsweek RV. 317 39 50 11 11 39.0 50.7 11.7

36 RV * Time RV.... 323 41 50 9 9 38.0 48.0 10.0
37 RV * CBS RV.... 409 34 44 22 10 38.3 49.7 11.3
38 RV * ABC/WP RV... 409 40 55 5 15 38.7 50.3 11.7
39 RV * Gallup RV... 409 42 52 6 10 41.0 52.7 11.7
40 RV * Pew RV...... 416 41 51 8 10 41.0 51.0 10.0

41 RV * CNN RV ..... 423 40 50 9 10 37.7 48.3 10.7
42 RV * Cook...... 430 32 44 24 12 37.0 49.3 12.3
43 RV * Gallup RV... 430 39 54 7 15 36.3 46.3 10.0
44 RV FOX LV..... 503 38 41 21 3 38.3 49.0 10.7
45 RV * CNN RV ..... 507 38 52 10 14 36.3 45.7 9.3

46 RV * CBS/NYT RV. 508 33 44 23 11 36.7 48.7 12.0
47 RV * Newsweek RV. 512 39 50 11 11 37.3 48.7 11.3
48 RV * ABC/WP RV... 515 40 52 9 12 38.3 47.0 8.7
49 LV * Fabrizio LV. 517 36 39 25 3 37.3 44.3 7.0
50 RV Hotline RV.. 521 36 42 22 6 38.0 44.0 6.0

51 RV * Gallup RV... 604 42 51 7 9 39.0 48.0 9.0
52 RV * Gallup RV... 611 39 51 10 12 38.0 49.3 11.3
53 LV FOX LV..... 614 33 46 20 13 36.7 47.3 10.7
54 RV * CNN RV ..... 615 38 45 16 7 36.7 47.3 10.7
55 RV * Pew RV...... 619 39 51 10 12 37.7 45.7 8.0

56 RV Hotline RV.. 625 36 41 24 5 38.0 48.0 10.0
57 RV * ABC/WP RV... 625 39 52 9 13 37.7 49.0 11.3
58 RV * Gallup RV... 625 38 54 7 16 37.3 51.0 13.7
59 LV * TIME LV.... 629 35 47 18 12 38.0 50.7 12.7
60 RV * Gallup RV... 709 41 51 9 10 38.7 49.7 11.0

61 RV * AP-Ipsos RV. 712 40 51 9 11 38.3 48.0 9.7
62 LV FOX LV..... 712 34 42 25 8 35.3 47.0 11.7
63 RV Hotline RV.. 723 32 48 20 16 33.7 45.0 11.3
64 RV * CBS/NYT RV. 725 35 45 20 10 35.7 48.0 12.3
65 RV * Gallup RV... 770 40 51 8 11 38.3 49.7 11.3

66 RV * CNN RV ..... 803 40 53 7 13 39.7 52.0 12.3
67 RV * ABC/WP RV... 806 39 52 8 13 38.7 53.3 14.7
68 RV * AP-Ipsos RV. 809 37 55 8 18 35.3 51.7 16.3
69 LV FOX LV..... 809 30 48 22 18 36.0 51.0 15.0
70 RV * Gallup RV... 810 41 50 9 9 36.7 49.7 13.0

71 RV * Newsweek RV. 811 39 51 10 12 40.3 50.3 10.0
72 RV * Pew RV...... 813 41 50 9 9 37.7 47.0 9.3
73 RV Hotline RV.. 820 33 40 27 7 39.7 45.7 6.0
74 RV * Gallup RV... 820 45 47 7 2 40.3 46.3 6.0
75 RV * CNN RV ..... 820 43 52 6 9 40.0 48.7 8.7

76 RV * CBS/NYT RV. 821 32 47 21 15 38.3 50.0 11.7
77 LV * TIME LV.... 824 40 51 9 11 36.7 49.3 12.7
78 RV * Newsweek RV. 825 38 50 12 12 36.7 49.7 13.0
79 LV FOX LV..... 830 32 48 21 16 37.7 50.3 12.7
80 LV * CNN LV ..... 902 43 53 4 10 39.0 50.3 11.3

81 RV * ABC RV .....907 42 50 9 8 41.3 51.0 9.7
82 RV * Pew RV...... 910 39 50 11 11 40.7 51.0 10.3
83 RV * Gallup RV... 910 41 53 7 12 39.3 48.0 8.7
84 LV FOX LV..... 913 38 41 21 3 42.3 47.3 5.0
85 LV *Gallup LV... 917 48 48 4 0 40.3 46.3 6.0

86 RV * CBS/NYT RV. 919 35 50 15 15 41.7 51.0 9.3
87 LV * CNN LV ..... 924 42 55 3 13 38.3 51.3 13.0
88 LV FOX LV..... 927 38 49 14 11 37.7 49.0 11.3
89 LV Hotline RV.. 927 33 43 24 10 34.7 44.7 10.0
90 LV Zogby LV.. 928 33 42 25 9 36.0 46.0 10.0

91 LV * CNN LV ..... 1002 42 53 5 11 37.7 49.3 11.6
92 RV * AP-Ipsos RV. 1004 38 51 11 13 40.3 52.3 11.9
93 RV * Pew RV...... 1004 41 51 8 10 39.3 51.8 12.4
94 LV * TIME LV.... 1005 39 54 7 15 39.7 52.5 12.8
95 RV * Newsweek RV. 1006 39 51 7 12 39.7 54.3 14.6

96 RV * ABC RV......1008 41 54 5 13 39.0 55.5 16.5
97 LV * CNN LV ..... 1008 37 58 5 21 38.0 55.0 17.0
98 LV *Gallup LV... 1008 36 59 4 23 36.3 54.0 17.7
99 LV Harris LV... 1009 36 49 15 13 37.7 53.5 15.8
100 LV FOX LV..... 1011 41 50 9 9 39.0 51.8 12.8

101 LV * CNN LV......1015 40 56 4 16 39.3 53.3 13.9
102 RV NBC RV......1016 37 52 11 15 38.0 54.3 16.3
103 LV * Newsweek LV. 1021 37 55 8 18 37.0 53.5 16.5