DU's Awsi Dooger:"TIA Cherry-picks polls". No Way, Awsi! YOU do.

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.democraticunderground.com...737346#2737444

Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts) Sun Jul-23-06 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
6. Brown does not hold a substantial lead over DeWine
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 02:43 PM by Awsi Dooger

I see that repeated here far too often. It's like TIA's strategy; embracing only the most favorable polls toward Democrats and including them in his election models so he could scream fraud if the result differed. If a firm had several polls he didn't like, he dismissed that firm as biased.

___________________________________________________________

Awsi:
First, let me thank you for your kind words when you learned I was ill.
Quite frankly, I'm surprised you would still refer to my analysis as a "Strategy". To do what: deceive newbies? Do you think I would have spent all those months into fudging the analysis? We know that the Final National and state Exit polls were rigged to match the corrupt recorded vote, so how do you explain that "strategy"? Get your facts straight.

I once taught OTOH a lesson when he attempted to debunk my analysis by linking to four web sites. Unfortunately, he didn't think I would actually read the links. He may have read them, but was so quick to debunk, he didn't fully analyze the facts behind the contents. Maybe he was just lazy. Well, I did - so I called him out on each of his four examples. It's all right here. I strongly suggest you read it:

http://www.progressiveindependent.co...&topic_id=1255

Now, just like OTOH, you have questioned my credibility, by repeating the naysayer myth that I cherry pick polls.

First, here's a friendly challenge. You're a sports betting guru, aren't you? Well, can you compute the odds of the '51 Giants coming from 13.5 games out on Aug. 12 to tie the Brooklyn Dodgers and win the playoff?

Here were the standings on Aug.12:
Brooklyn: 73-38
NY Giants: 59-51

Now calculate the odds. Show us whatcha got. And let's compare it to the odds of Bush exceeding the MoE in 16 state exit polls: 1 in 19 trillion.

Now, back to the subject at hand...
__________________________________________________

Awsi, do you think I cherry-picked these 18 national pre-election polls?

In the Nov.1 Election Model, using the final 18 national polls, I forecast
a 51.63-48.37% Kerry win (two-party). Subtracting 0.5% from Kerry and Bush for third parties, the full Election Model projection was 51.13-47.87, 0.35% from the 12:22am NEP Gender vote 50.78-48.22.

Update to the detailed list below:
Kerry led in 11 of the 18 polls.
On Nov.2 Zogby and Harris had Kerry ahead by 50-47%.
Kerry's weighted average lead was slightly higher: 48-47%.

Final 18 Pre-election Poll Summary:
Kerry won 11, Bush 6, 1 tie
Kerry won 5 of 9 Registered Voter (RV) Polls
Kerry won 6 of 9 Likely Voter (LV) Polls

FINAL NATIONAL PRE-ELECTION POLLS

Undecided vote
Total Poll Total Weighted Average 67% 33%
Sample Sample MoE KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH
Date 26961 Group 0.60% 47.55 47.30 50.77 48.23

1-Nov Marist 1166 LV 2.87% 50 49 49.69 49.31
1-Nov Econom 2903 RV 1.82% 49 45 51.62 47.38
1-Nov TIPP 1284 LV 2.73% 44 47 52.21 46.79
1-Nov CBS 1125 RV 2.92% 47 48 47.99 51.01
1-Nov Harris 1509 LV 2.52% 48 49 50.30 48.70

31-Oct Zogby 1200 LV 2.83% 47 48 50.47 48.53
31-Oct FOX 1400 RV 2.62% 48 45 54.57 44.43
31-Oct DemCorp 1018 LV 3.07% 48 47 50.33 48.67
31-Oct Gallup 1866 RV 2.27% 48 46 52.08 46.92
31-Oct NBC 1014 LV 3.08% 47 48 48.11 50.89

31-Oct ABC 3511 RV 1.65% 47 48 50.78 48.22
30-Oct ARG 1258 LV 2.76% 49 48 50.74 48.26
30-Oct Pew 2408 RV 2.00% 46 45 51.04 47.96
29-Oct Newsw 1005 RV 3.09% 44 48 49.24 49.76
26-Oct ICR 817 RV 3.43% 48 48 49.00 50.00

24-Oct LAT 1698 RV 2.38% 48 47 52.44 46.56
21-Oct Time 803 LV 3.46% 46 51 45.06 53.94
20-Oct AP 976 LV 3.14% 49 46 51.41 47.59



Polling Data Source:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovS.pdf

BUSH KERRY
Zogby Poll
1 LV 48 47 10/4-31/04 REUTERS/ZOGBY TRACKING POLL: 3-day rolling sample of approx. 1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9.
Bush Kerry Nader Other
10/29-31/04 48 47 1 4

2 LV 49 50 Marist College Poll. Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,166 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,026 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush Kerry Unsure
11/1/2004 49 50 1


3 RV 45 49 Economist YouGov 2903 total; MoE +/-2%
10/30-11/01 Bush Kerry
45 49

4 LV 47 44 TIPP tracking poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,284 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.**
Bush Kerry
10/30 - 11/1/04 47 44

5 RV 48 47 CBS News Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,125 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
Bush/ Kerry/
Cheney Edwards
10/29 - 11/1/04 48 47

6 LV 49 48 The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004: N=1,509 likely voters nationwide who express a preference. MoE ± 2.5.
Bush Kerry Nader Other (vol.)
10/29 - 11/1/04 49 48 2 1

7 RV 45 48 FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=1,400 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,200 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
George John Other Wouldn't
W. Bush Kerry Not Sure Vote (vol.)
10/30-31/04 45 48 7 -

8 LV 47 48 Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
George John Ralph Other Unsure
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.)
10/29-31/04 47 48 1 1 3

9 RV 46 48 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other None/
Cheney Edwards Camejo (vol.) Unsure
10/29-31/04 46 48 1 1 4

10 LV 48 47 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ None/ Unsure
Cheney Edwards Camejo Other (vol.)
10/29-31/04 48 47 1 2 2

11 RV 48 47 ABC News Tracking Poll and Washington Post Tracking Poll. Rolling sample. Fieldwork by TNS. ABC News and The Washington Post share data collection for this tracking poll, but calculate and report the results independently. WASHINGTON POST: Oct. 28-31, 200
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ None/ No
Cheney Edwards Camejo Wouldn't Opinion
ABC News Tracking Poll
10/28-31/04 48 47 1 2 2


12 LV 48 49 American Research Group Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,500 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,258 likely voters (MoE ± 2.8).
Bush/ Kerry/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Unsure
48 49 3

13 RV 45 46 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=2,408 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,925 likely voters (MoE ± 2.5).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Camejo Unsure
10/27-30/04 45 46 1 8

14 RV 48 44 Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.*Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 4); 882 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other (vol.)/
Cheney Edwards Camejo Undecided
10/27-29/04 48 44 1 7

15 RV 48 48 ICR/International Communications Research poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=817 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.4); 741 likely voters (MoE ± 3.6).
Bush/ Kerry/ Other Neither Unsure
Cheney Edwards (vol.) (vol.)
10/22-26/04 48 48 - 1 4

16 RV 47 48 Los Angeles Times Poll. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=1,698 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 881 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Unsure
Cheney Edwards
10/21-24/04 47 48 5

17 LV 51 46 Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=1,059 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 803 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
Bush Kerry Nader Unsure
10/19-21/04 51 46 2 1
.
18 LV 46 49 Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 976 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Camejo None (vol.)/
10/18-20/04 46 49 2 3

________________________________________________________________

Awsi, do you think I rigged the National Exit Poll timeline?
Why don't you check the numbers?

Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Jul-18-06 11:32 PM

KERRY NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE DETAIL

We know that the Final was matched to the recorded vote.
Can any naysayer provide a detailed explanation of the underlying process
in generating the timeline from 4pm on Nov.2 to the 1:25pm Final?

That means analyzing the change in weights AND vote shares for the four
timelines shown below - for all demographic categories.

Note:
< change in weights / characteristics from 12:22am to Final (1:25pm)

4pm 7:33pm 12:22am 1:25pm 4pm 7:33pm 12:22am 1:25pm
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 8349 11027 13047 13660

Category Weighting Kerry Percentage
GENDER
Male 42 46 46 46 47 47 47 44 <<<
Fem 58 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.48 50.78 50.78 47.78
VOTE (mm) 61.72 62.08 62.08 58.42

REGION
East 23 22 22 22 58 58 58 56 <<
Midwt 25 26 26 26 50 50 50 48 <<
South 31 31 31 32 44 45 45 42 <<<
West 21 21 21 20 53 53 53 50 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.61 50.84 50.84 48.24
VOTE (mm) 61.88 62.16 62.16 58.98

PARTY ID
Democrat 39 38 38 37< 90 90 90 89 <
Repub 36 36 35 37<< 7 7 7 6 <
Indep 25 26 27 26< 52 52 52 49 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.24 50.69 47.89
VOTE (mm) 61.89 61.42 61.97 58.55

IDEOLOGY
Liberal 22 22 22 21 < 86 87 86 85 <
Moderate 45 45 45 45 58 57 57 54 <<<
Conservative 33 33 33 34 < 16 16 16 15 <
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.3 50.07 49.85 47.25
VOTE (mm) 61.50 61.22 60.95 57.77

VOTED IN 2000
NoVote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 <<<
Gore 39 38 39 37<< 91 91 91 90 <
Bush 42 41 41 43<< 9 9 10 9 <
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 71 71
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.41 48.48
VOTE (mm) 62.36 62.23 62.85 59.27

WHEN DECIDED
Today 6 6 6 5 52 54 53 52 <
Last3Days 3 3 3 4 50 54 53 55 >>
LastWeek 2 2 2 2 48 48 48 48
LastMonth 10 10 10 10 61 61 60 54 <<<<<<<
Over30Days 79 79 79 79 50 50 50 46 <<<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.18 51.42 51.23 47.5
VOTE (mm) 62.57 62.87 62.63 58.07

EDUCATION
NoHS 4 4 4 4 50 52 52 50 <<
H.S. 22 22 22 22 50 51 51 47 <<<<
College 30 31 31 32 < 48 47 47 46 <
Grad 26 26 26 26 48 49 48 46 <<
PostGrad 18 17 17 16 < 58 58 58 55 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.32 50.34 50.21 47.82
VOTE (mm) 61.52 61.55 61.39 58.46

RACE
WM 33 36 36 36 40 41 41 37 <<<<
WF 44 41 41 41 47 47 47 44 <<<
NWM 10 10 10 10 69 70 69 67 <<
NWF 13 13 13 13 77 77 77 75 <<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.79 51.04 50.94 47.81
VOTE (mm) 62.10 62.40 62.28 58.45

AGE
18-29 15 17 17 17 56 56 56 54 <<
30-44 27 27 27 29<< 48 49 49 46 <<<
45-59 31 30 30 30 52 51 51 48 <<<
60+ 27 26 26 24<< 48 48 48 46 <<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.44 50.53 50.53 47.96
VOTE (mm) 61.67 61.78 61.78 58.64

INCOME
0-15 9 9 9 8 < 68 66 66 63 <<<
15-30 15 15 15 15 59 59 59 57 <<
30-50 22 22 22 22 53 52 52 50 <<
50-75 22 23 23 23 46 45 45 43 <<
75-100 14 13 13 14 < 49 49 49 45 <<<<
100-150 11 11 11 11 44 45 45 42 <<<
150-200 4 4 4 4 45 47 47 42 <<<<<
200+ 3 3 3 3 40 41 41 35 <<<<<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.45 51.01 51.01 48.13
VOTE (mm) 62.90 62.36 62.36 58.84

RELIGION
Protestant 53 53 53 53 43 43 43 40 <<<
Catholic 27 27 27 27 50 50 50 47 <<<
Jewish 3 3 3 3 77 77 77 74 <<<
Other 7 7 7 7 76 75 75 74 <
None 10 10 10 10 69 70 70 67 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.82 50.85 50.85 47.99
VOTE (mm) 62.13 62.17 62.17 58.67

MILITARY
InMilitary 18 18 18 18 43 43 43 41 <<
NoMilitary 82 82 82 82 52 53 53 50 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.38 51.2 51.2 48.38
VOTE (mm) 61.59 62.60 62.60 59.15

_______________________________________________________________

So you think I cherry-picked these final state pre-election and exit polls?
I used ARG, Zogby, Survey USA, Mason-Dixon, Gallup, etc for the pre-election model. Check them out. In the Nov.1 election model, I forecast a Kerry two- party win:51.8-48.2%. So I guess my choice of polls and undecided voter assumptions were pretty good.

As for the state exits, you can check them also. I used the 12:22am state exits downloaded by Jonathan Simon. The simulation run below gave Kerry a 50.55-48.45% win based on the pre-election polls and a 50.8-48.2% win based on the exit polls.


Kerry Electoral Vote MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
319 Mean STATE PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS
320 Median
364 Maximum
259 Minimum

Pre-Election Exit Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Kerry
MoE MoE Pre Pre Exit Exit PreSim ExitSim Final
Wtd Avg 0.60 0.44 47.50 47.02 50.06 49.03 50.55 50.80 48.32

AL 9 3.89 4.28 39.00 57.00 40.48 58.06 41.20 40.50 36.86
AK 3 3.76 3.82 30.00 57.00 38.76 57.80 43.39 43.31 35.61
AR 6 3.95 2.72 45.00 50.00 46.13 52.87 46.14 46.16 44.40
AZ 10 3.96 3.13 46.00 48.00 46.71 52.82 45.74 45.59 44.55
CA 55 3.95 2.67 49.00 42.00 54.64 43.40 55.36 55.45 54.43

CO 9 3.96 2.34 47.00 48.00 48.12 49.94 46.70 46.73 47.08
CT 7 3.94 3.92 52.00 42.00 57.65 40.94 57.16 57.27 54.31
DE 3 3.95 4.18 45.00 38.00 57.27 40.73 62.51 62.61 53.36
DC 3 2.61 2.31 78.00 11.00 89.80 8.20 89.78 89.68 89.43
FL 27 3.96 2.20 47.00 47.00 49.70 49.84 50.56 50.56 47.13

GA 15 3.94 2.97 42.00 52.00 42.92 56.64 42.19 42.31 41.41
HI 4 3.96 5.25 45.00 45.00 53.32 46.68 49.63 48.83 54.01
ID 4 3.74 4.69 30.00 59.00 32.85 65.70 34.49 30.09 30.26
IL 21 3.93 3.12 54.00 42.00 56.56 42.44 56.58 58.67 54.82
IN 11 3.88 3.80 39.00 58.00 40.56 58.44 40.72 41.11 39.26

IA 7 3.95 2.35 50.00 44.00 49.70 48.38 49.83 49.70 49.29
KS 6 3.85 4.38 37.00 60.00 34.10 64.45 43.11 35.88 36.62
KY 8 3.90 3.59 39.00 56.00 40.16 58.38 38.58 38.76 39.69
LA 9 3.94 2.86 40.00 48.00 43.85 54.70 48.32 43.63 42.31
ME 4 3.93 2.64 50.00 39.00 53.77 44.29 56.08 53.21 53.57

MD 10 3.93 3.68 54.00 43.00 56.16 42.30 54.88 55.03 55.97
MA 12 3.62 3.72 64.00 27.00 65.16 32.88 68.01 66.25 62.09
MI 17 3.95 2.37 52.00 45.00 51.50 46.50 54.46 52.50 51.25
MN 10 3.95 2.51 52.00 44.00 53.52 44.48 55.19 53.83 51.20
MS 6 3.94 4.12 42.00 51.00 43.00 56.53 47.03 42.43 40.22

MO 11 3.95 2.53 44.00 49.00 47.00 52.00 46.14 46.14 46.10
MT 3 3.86 4.54 36.00 57.00 37.51 57.98 38.34 37.07 38.57
NE 5 3.76 4.04 32.00 61.00 36.00 62.52 37.31 36.30 32.72
NV 5 3.96 2.56 49.00 49.00 49.16 47.88 48.93 48.89 48.09
NH 4 3.96 2.72 47.00 47.00 54.94 44.06 55.22 55.75 50.35

NJ 15 3.94 2.99 50.00 42.00 54.70 42.76 57.35 57.39 52.95
NM 5 3.96 2.66 49.00 49.00 50.08 47.46 51.98 52.91 49.05
NY 31 3.89 2.96 57.00 39.00 62.75 35.35 58.89 63.42 58.39
NC 15 3.96 2.52 47.00 50.00 46.64 51.94 48.71 45.92 43.59
ND 3 3.86 4.36 35.00 55.00 32.57 64.43 41.17 30.60 35.50

OH 20 3.96 2.65 50.00 47.00 52.06 47.94 51.20 51.68 48.71
OK 7 3.68 2.85 28.00 61.00 34.56 64.96 37.12 34.71 34.43
OR 7 3.95 3.60 50.00 44.00 50.25 47.85 54.96 49.77 51.60
PA 21 3.95 2.67 50.00 45.00 54.12 45.35 52.98 54.13 50.96
RI 4 3.87 3.96 56.00 36.00 62.65 34.88 59.26 63.34 59.57

SC 8 3.92 2.81 42.00 55.00 45.13 53.44 44.50 45.76 40.96
SD 3 3.94 2.94 42.00 52.00 36.47 61.00 45.17 38.40 38.44
TN 11 3.96 2.75 47.00 50.00 40.56 58.00 50.62 41.13 42.53
TX 34 3.85 2.78 37.00 59.00 36.30 62.24 42.24 36.90 38.23
UT 5 3.47 3.81 24.00 69.00 29.08 68.08 26.11 31.45 26.03

VT 3 3.92 4.27 53.00 40.00 63.65 33.25 52.87 64.06 59.22
VA 13 3.96 3.11 47.00 51.00 47.00 51.00 48.79 49.57 45.56
WA 11 3.95 2.54 52.00 44.00 53.48 43.64 51.23 54.57 52.86
WV 5 3.96 2.82 45.00 49.00 44.53 54.00 48.25 42.80 43.20
WI 10 3.95 2.49 51.00 44.00 49.24 48.82 52.58 49.31 49.76
WY 3 3.66 4.20 29.00 65.00 30.94 65.53 30.49 30.39 29.13
___________________________________________________________________________

How about these monthly pre-election poll numbers? Do you want to check them for accuracy? Be my guest.

Note: < indicates net Kerry polling gain (loss) in the final poll.
Kerry gained in 13 of the final 15 polls. The average gain was 4%.

NATIONAL POLL TREND

Current Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff

1.TIPP
Feb 44 41 3 55.3 44.8 10.5
Mar 45 43 2 54.0 46.0 8.0
Apr 40 44 -4 52.0 48.0 4.0
May 43 42 1 54.3 45.8 8.5
June 43 44 -1 52.8 47.3 5.5
July 46 43 3 54.3 45.8 8.5
Aug 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0
Sept 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5
Oct 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5 < -2
AVG 43.89 43.44 0.44 53.39 46.61 6.78

2.ABC
Feb 52 43 9 55.8 44.3 11.5
Mar 53 44 9 55.3 44.8 10.5
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 53 45 8 54.5 45.5 9.0
July 47 49 -2 50.0 50.0 0.0
Aug 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
Sept 45 51 -6 48.0 52.0 -4.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5 < +7
AVG 49.33 47.00 2.33 52.08 47.92 4.17

3.AP
Jan 37 54 -17 43.8 56.3 -12.5
Mar 45 46 -1 51.8 48.3 3.5
Apr 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5
May 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5
July 45 49 -4 49.5 50.5 -1.0
Aug 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sept 42 51 -9 47.3 52.8 -5.5
Oct 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5 < +12
AVG 44.88 46.75 -1.88 51.16 48.84 2.31

4.Nwk
Jan 41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5
Feb 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
Mar 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5
Apr 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
May 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5
July 51 45 6 54.0 46.0 8.0
Aug 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0
Sept 45 50 -5 48.8 51.3 -2.5
Oct 45 48 -3 50.3 49.8 0.5 < +2
AVG 48.11 45.56 2.56 52.86 47.14 5.72

5.ARG
Jan 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
Feb 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Mar 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
Apr 50 44 6 54.5 45.5 9.0
May 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5
June 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
July 49 45 4 53.5 46.5 7.0
Aug 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5
Sep 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5 < +2
AVG 48.44 45.44 3.00 53.03 46.97 6.06


6.NBC
Jan 35 54 -19 43.3 56.8 -13.5
Mar 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5
May 42 46 -4 51.0 49.0 2.0
June 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5
July 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Aug 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Sep 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5 <+2
AVG 44.38 46.75 -2.38 51.03 48.97 2.06

7.FOX
Jan 32 54 -22 42.5 57.5 -15.0
Feb 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0
Mar 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0
Apr 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5
May 42 42 0 54.0 46.0 8.0
June 42 48 -6 49.5 50.5 -1.0
July 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 43 45 -2 52.0 48.0 4.0
Oct 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5 <+2
AVG 43.44 44.56 -1.11 52.44 47.56 4.89

8.CBS
Jan 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Feb 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
Mar 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Apr 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
May 49 41 8 56.5 43.5 13.0
June 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
July 49 44 5 54.3 45.8 8.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 41 49 -8 48.5 51.5 -3.0
Oct 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5 <+7
AVG 46.44 44.56 1.89 53.19 46.81 6.39


9.Gallup
Jan 43 55 -12 44.5 55.5 -11.0
Feb 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
Mar 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0
Apr 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
July 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5
Aug 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5
Sep 44 52 -8 47.0 53.0 -6.0
Oct 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0 <+10
AVG 48.22 47.67 0.56 51.31 48.69 2.61

10.PEW
Jan 41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5
Feb 47 47 0 51.5 48.5 3.0
Mar 48 44 4 54.0 46.0 8.0
Apr 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
May 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
June 46 48 -2 50.5 49.5 1.0
July 46 44 2 53.5 46.5 7.0
Aug 47 45 2 53.0 47.0 6.0
Sep 40 48 -8 49.0 51.0 -2.0
Oct 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5 <+9
AVG 46.33 45.78 0.56 52.25 47.75 4.50

11.LAT
Apr 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5
June 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5
July 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Aug 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5
Sep 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5 <+5
AVG 47.71 46.43 1.29 52.11 47.89 4.21

12.ZOGBY
Mar 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Apr 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5
May 47 42 5 55.3 44.8 10.5
June 44 42 2 54.5 45.5 9.0
July 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Aug 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
Sep 44 47 -3 50.8 49.3 1.5
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5 <+2
AVG 46.88 44.38 2.50 53.44 46.56 6.88

13.TIME
Jan 43 54 -11 45.3 54.8 -9.5
Feb 48 50 -2 49.5 50.5 -1.0
May 51 46 5 53.3 46.8 6.5
July 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
Aug 46 46 0 52.0 48.0 4.0
Sep 44 48 -4 50.0 50.0 0.0
Oct 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5 <-1
AVG 48.00 47.43 0.57 51.43 48.57 2.86

14.DemC
Feb 51 47 4 52.5 47.5 5.0
Mar 47 50 -3 49.3 50.8 -1.5
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
July 50 47 3 52.3 47.8 4.5
Aug 52 45 7 54.3 45.8 8.5
Sep 49 49 0 50.5 49.5 1.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5 <+1
AVG 49.22 47.67 1.56 51.56 48.44 3.11

15.Marist
July 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5 <+3
AVG 46.00 45.75 0.25 52.19 47.81 4.38

[TruthIsAll]

Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts) Mon Jul-24-06 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #25

36. In regard to exit polls, I've noticed plenty of silly, the other way
Edited on Mon Jul-24-06 04:00 PM by Awsi Dooger

Let's take that national exit poll, the one embraced by fraud theorists asserting Kerry won nationally 51-48. I haven't mentioned this on DU in probably a year, and perhaps never in this forum, but time for a recap.

One category conveniently overlooked is "When Decided." If you analyze those numbers based on how the race unfolded and the pre-election poll consensus, the adjusted 1:25 PM Monday results make much more real world sense than 12:22 AM, or either of the two previous calls.

All three non-adjusted "When Decided" numbers are remarkably similar, Kerry with 50% among the 79% of voters who decided more than 30 days before election day. Then Kerry takes 60 or 61% among the 10% of voters deciding "Last Month." So if those numbers are true, and this is a representative sample, then how did Kerry ever trail in the pre-election polls? Certainly in the final weeks he should have led, but that's hardly the case in the late poll consensus: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Let me guess the response; the pre-election polls were wrong, tilted to Bush. Funny how that wasn't the argument post-2002, when pre-election polls were gospel around here, and the older the better. I still see posters insisting Cleland was up double digits over Chambliss in Georgia, even though the late polls had it tied with all the momentum toward Chambliss.

Anyway, that 12:22 AM NEP, the one preferred as the ultimate truth around here, gives Kerry 53% of the late deciders, those who made up their mind on election day or within the previous three days. His number along "Last Week" is even worse, 48%. Sorry, but there wasn't a pre-election model on this planet that gave Kerry 51% of the popular vote if he managed only a slight majority of the late undecideds. TIA was championing 67% in his election model. I warned him several times that was wildly optimistic, since the challenger has been defined and hardly charismatic. In my model I struggled between 55 and 62%. Only the highest numbers in that range pushed Kerry slightly over the top. The wild cards were party ID, white women and late undecideds, and all indications are we lost all three, compared to the numbers we needed.

On the other hand, the weighted NEP describes the race exactly as I remember it. Kerry has 46% of those deciding beyond 30 days. Then a 54% majority among "Last Month." That probably reflects Kerry's debate superiority. But over the final week, with the release of the Bin Laden tape and 9/11 providing a fear-based ally for the incumbent, the vital late undecideds don't break sharply our way and Kerry comes up short.
__________________________________________________


TIA
Awsi, go back to the OP. Kerry was leading in 11 of the final 18 national pre-election polls. Nine polls were RV, 9 were LV. I have documented them all in the OP. So why do you keep insisting that Bush was leading?

Let's see your list. Were the "Real Clear" Polls RV or LV?
If they were all LV, that's cherry-picking.
Lo and behold, they're ALL LV!
Do you want to associate yourself with the "Real Clear" cherry-picked list?

KNOW THIS:
RV POLLS INCLUDE ALL REGISTERED VOTERS, WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE NEWLY REGISTERED OR JUST DID NOT VOTE IN 2000.
LV POLLS DON'T INCLUDE THIS LARGE 2004 VOTER GROUP.

KERRY WON A CLEAR MAJORITY (57-60%) OF 21MM VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000 AND WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A LIKELY VOTER POLL.
_____________________________________________________________________

Awsi, it looks like you just came up short.
Here's your cherry-picked LV poll list.
It's Real Clear. Not one RV poll in sight.

Poll Date Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo Spread

RCP Average FINAL 50.0% 48.5% 1.0% Bush +1.5
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 48.9% 47.4% 0.9% Bush +1.5

Marist (1026 LV) 11/1 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1 50% 46% 0% Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 47% 1% Bush +2

Harris (1509 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 48% 2% Bush +1
****not the latest. The final on 11/2 was 50-47 Kerry.

FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2

Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
****not the latest. The final on 11/2 was 50-47 Kerry.

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29 - 10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)** 10/28 - 10/31 49% 48% 0% Bush +1

ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/25 - 10/28 51% 46% 0% Bush +5

ICR (741 LV) 10/22 - 10/26 48% 45% 2% Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV) 10/22 - 10/24 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
Los Angeles Times (881 LV) 10/21 - 10/24 48% 48% 1% TIE
Newsweek (880 LV) 10/21 - 10/22 48% 46% 1% Bush +2
Time (803 LV) 10/19 - 10/21 51% 46% 2% Bush +5

_____________________________________________________________

[TruthIsAll]

Harris, a long-time Pollster of impeccable credentials said:

"Undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger".

Therefore, assuming that Kerry got 2/3 of the late undecided votes,
he was poised to be 51.5-47.5% winner. My election model forecast Kerry as a winner by 51.3-47.7% based on final state pre-election polls and 51.1-47.9% based on the final 18 national pre-election polls.

__________________________________________________________
Final Pre-election Harris Polls: Still Too Close to Call but Kerry Makes Modest Gains

The final Harris Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very end of the campaign in an election that is still too close to call using telephone methods of polling.. At the same time, the final Harris Internet-based poll suggests that Kerry will win the White House today in a narrow victory.

Harris Interactive’s final online survey of 5,508 likely voters shows a three-point lead for Senator Kerry. The final Harris Interactive telephone survey of 1,509 likely voters shows a one-point lead for President Bush. Both surveys are based on interviews conducted between October 29, 2004 and November 1, 2004. The telephone survey is consistent with most of the other telephone polls, which show the race virtually tied.

Both surveys suggest that Kerry has been making some gains over the course of the past few days (see Harris Polls #83

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/har...ex.asp?PID=512, and #78 http://www.harrisinteractive.com/har...ex.asp?PID=507.

If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the elections, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.

About one percentage point of the current difference probably reflects the inclusion in the online sample of people with cell phones but no landline (and therefore not included in the telephone survey) who favor Kerry by a wide margin.

See The Harris Poll #86 released yesterday at www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll.

[TruthIsAll]

You want to change the subject to the When Decided demographic.
Unfortunately, you cited the Final 1:25pm exit poll, which gave Kerry 46%.
If you recall, I have already shown that the Final was bogus. The How Voted in 2000 demographic had impossible 43/37 weights. Therefore, it follows that ALL Final Exit Poll demographics were bogus as well SINCE THEY EACH MATCHED TO A BOGUS VOTE. Including "When Decided". It sure IS pure math. According to the 12:22am timeline (Kerry won 51-47), 50% of those who decided Over 30 Days prior to the election voted for Kerry. ________________________________________________________________
Melissa G
55. Hi Awsi, you seem to merit a TIA refuting...
PM me if you need directions to view the dissection..

Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts) Wed Jul-26-06 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #55
76. I seriously doubt TIA looked at the "When Decided" category
prior to 2004
Melissa, that's my beef with TIA and Steven Freeman, among others. Instant
authority, even though they had no background in the subject. TIA certainly
has done extremely impressive mathematical work on DU and elsewhere for
years, but I debated with him often enough to know he placed extreme
emphasis on pre-election polls before 2004, virtually no mention of exit
polls. Of course, that's partially attributable to the exit poll collapse
of 2002. I'm sure he would have managed dozens of threads if the 2002 exit
polling had been released.

But this is what I'm getting at, not all of this is pure math. It helps to
know the applicable trends and evaluate them sensibly and with historical
background. I'm posted previously I think you could hand Steven Freeman an
exit poll allowing John Kerry 60% in Utah and he would merely type it in
his database and scream foul if the actual vote tally didn't match.

I've studied that "When Decided" category since '96. Hundreds of
views, including presidential, governor and senate. Not once have I seen a
Democrat with 50+% in the "Over 30 Days" category who hadn't lead
in the pre-election polls. Let me repeat that, not a single time. In fact, I
can't remember a Democrat with 49% who didn't lead the early polling, nor a
Democrat who was tied with the GOP opponent even if both were slightly
below 50%.

That category is dominated by the Republican. I should have emphasized that
in my post last night. Sometimes I leave out a point when I've mentioned it
on so many forums it seems cliche. But that's what I was referring to when
I asked how Kerry didn't lead the pre-election polls if he truly earned 50%
beyond 30 days, and 61% in the "Last Month" category. If Democrats
had to rely on the election result matching that "Over 30 Days"
margin, we would be a 30% party in congress. I don't know if Republicans
are truly less flexible, or merely like to assert they knew all along, but
just check out the state by state exit polls for 2004 or earlier and you'll
see what I mean. It's hardly uncommon for a Democrat to trail that category
by 8 or 10%, even if the race was tight throughout.

Of course, it's not always a perfect comparison or easy to evaluate because
the pre-election polls have much lower percentage of undecideds than the
exit polls reveal. The pollsters include leaners and I think it's human
nature to voice an opinion and not whimper out with a "sorry, no
idea." Men, in particular, seem reluctant to say they're undecided.
But in 2004 you had an extraordinary percentage of knew-all-alongs in the
exit polls, mid to high 70s everywhere including 79% in the presidential
race. That's maybe 10% higher than typical.

Admittedly, I've looked at that "When Decided" number primarily
for betting purposes, plus understanding how states vote in relation to how
they were polled. Sometimes the exit poll number in that "When
Decided" category hints the pre-election polling was flawed all along.
The most dramatic example is the '04 Alaska senate race between Tony Knowles
and Lisa Murkowski. Conventional wisdom is Knowles led for an entire year,
normally a few points, then senator Ted Stevens changed the outcome with a
late fear flurry. But the beyond 30 days number was overwhelming in favor
of Murkowski, something like +15, then Knowles grabbed a vast majority of
the final month and late deciders. I've read many pollsters say Alaska is
very difficult to poll and that's further confirmation. I'm convinced
Knowles never led at all, or not in the final months. Determining where the
polls are likely to err is my hobby, not screaming fraud if they do err. I
wagered on Lisa Murkowski in that race, since my PAN or Partisan Adjustment
Number for Alaska indicated she was probably leading.

I know, Diebold in Alaska. It's always Diebold. But the same thing happened
in 2002 when Fran Ulmer narrowly trailed Frank Murkowski in the polls, then
he blasted her by 15%.

I realize this has rambled. A TIA response is more than welcome if he
addresses the historical issue, and finds another example(s) of a Democrat
at 50+% in that beyond 30 days "When Decided" slot who did not
lead the pre-election polls. Frankly, if someone had told me in early 2004
that Kerry would get 50% in that category, I would have projected him to
lead the pre-election polling by 2-4%. Again, this is poll based, not
result based. Certainly possible for a Democrat to lead that category, then
lose via late deciders, and the reverse is true.

So my dilemma regarding 2004 is do I trust the relationship I've noticed
since '96, that a Democrat with 50+% long term strength naturally led the
pre-election polling, or since that didn't happen, not even close, do I
reject that 50% as a flawed representation and conclude the 46% adjusted
figure is more likely accurate? I choose the latter, with the caveat that
virtually all my 10 years of sample have been with "weighted"
exit poll figures. Maybe they've been fooling me all along.
__________________________________________________________________________

TIA
Here are the NEP demographic vote shares, adjusted to derive the Kerry 64-57mm margin, which was based on applying feasible weights to the How Voted in 2000 demographic (see below). I gave Kerry 49% and Bush 50% for the "When Decided" 30 days grouping.

http://www.progressiveindependent.co...&topic_id=1583

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS
12:22am 13047 respondents


No-adjustment:
Impossible "How Voted in 2000" weights: 39% Gore/41% Bush
National vote share:
Gender: Kerry 50.78% / Bush 48.22%
How Voted in 2000: Kerry 51.41%/ Bush 47.62%

Adjusted:
Feasible weights/vote shares: Gore 39.45%/Bush 39.02%
(Assume equal 98% Gore & Bush voter turnout).
National vote share:
Gender: Kerry 52.35% / Bush 46.65%
How Voted in 2000: Kerry 52.39% / Bush 46.65%

Note: ALL other Demographic Weights/category vote shares are adjusted in
order to match "How Voted in 2000" vote shares:
52.39% Kerry /46.65% Bush
That means Kerry won by 7 million votes: 64-57mm.

Final Recorded Vote
Kerry Bush Other
48.28% 50.73% 0.91%
59.028 62.027 1.116
Total 122.27mm votes

12:22am Adjusted 12:22am No adj.
CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
Total Votes 64.01 56.95 1.22 62.05 58.45 1.26
Percent 52.39% 46.61% 1.00% 50.79% 47.84% 1.03%
2-party 52.92% 47.08% 51.50% 48.50%


Gender 52.35% 46.65% 1.00% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00%
Party- ID 52.34% 46.66% 1.00% 50.69% 47.50% 1.27%
Voted 2000 52.39% 46.65% 0.96% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97%
Region 52.41% 46.59% 1.00% 50.53% 47.95% 1.00%
Education 52.39% 46.61% 1.00% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39%

Race 52.40% 46.60% 1.00% 50.94% 47.86% 1.00%
Age 52.38% 46.62% 1.00% 50.26% 47.69% 1.05%
Income 52.39% 46.61% 1.00% 51.39% 47.39% 0.94%
Ideology 52.40% 46.60% 1.00% 49.85% 48.15% 1.00%
Religion 52.48% 46.52% 1.00% 50.78% 47.94% 1.21%

Military 52.38% 46.62% 1.00% 51.20% 47.62% 1.00%
Decided 52.37% 46.63% 1.00% 51.23% 47.95% 0.54%


12:22am Adjusted ................................ 1:25pm Final

WHEN DECIDED
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Today 7.34 6% 68% 31% 1% 5% 52% 45% 1%
Last3 3.67 3% 68% 31% 1% 4% 55% 42% 1%
Last7 2.45 2% 67% 32% 1% 2% 48% 51% 0%
Last30 12.23 10% 62% 37% 1% 10% 54% 44% 1%
Over30 96.59 79% 49% 50% 1% 79% 46% 53% 0%

Total 52.37% 46.63% 1.00% 47.50% 51.54% .21%
122.27 64.07 56.98 1.22 121.04 57.77 63.02 0.26

VOTED IN 2000
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
No 23.56 19.27% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 48.23 39.45% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 47.71 39.02% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0%
Other 2.76 2.26% 71% 21% 8% 3% 71% 21% 3%

Total 52.39% 46.65% 0.96% 48.48% 51.11% 0.26%
122.27 64.05 57.04 1.17 122.08 59.28 62.49 0.32


GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Male 56.73 46.40% 49.00% 50.00% 1.00% 46% 44% 55% 0%
Female 65.54 53.60% 55.3% 43.7% 1.00% 54% 51% 48% 0%

Total 52.38% 46.62% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 0.00%
122.27 64.04 57.01 1.22 121.04 58.42 62.63 0.00


PARTY ID
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Dem 46.46 38% 92% 7% 1% 37% 89% 11% 0%
Rep 42.79 35% 8% 91% 1% 37% 6% 93% 0%
Ind 33.01 27% 54% 45% 1% 26% 49% 48% 1%

Total 52.34% 46.66% 1.00% 47.89% 50.96% 0.26%
122.27 63.99 57.05 1.22 121.18 58.55 62.31 0.32

REGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
East 26.90 22% 59% 40% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1%
Midw 31.79 26% 51% 48% 1% 26% 48% 51% 0%
South 37.90 31% 47% 52% 1% 32% 42% 58% 0%
West 25.68 21% 55% 44% 1% 20% 50% 49% 1%

Total 52.36% 46.64% 1.00% 48.24% 51.08% 0.42%
122.27 64.02 57.03 1.22 121.95 58.98 62.45 0.51

EDUCATION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
No HS 4.89 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 0%
HSGr 26.90 22% 51% 48% 1% 22% 47% 52% 0%
Col 37.90 31% 50% 49% 1% 32% 46% 54% 0%
ColGr 31.79 26% 52% 47% 1% 26% 46% 52% 1%
PostG 20.79 17% 59% 40% 1% 16% 55% 44% 1%

Total 52.39% 46.61% 1.00% 47.82% 51.24% 0.42%
122.27 64.06 56.99 1.22 121.63 58.47 62.65 0.51


RACE AND GENDER
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
WMale 44.02 36% 43% 56% 1% 36% 37% 62% 0%
WFem 50.13 41% 48% 51% 1% 41% 44% 55% 0%
NWMale 12.23 10% 71% 28% 1% 10% 67% 30% 1%
NwFem 15.89 13% 78% 21% 1% 13% 75% 24% 1%

Total 52.40% 46.60% 1.00% 47.81% 50.99% 0.23%
122.27 64.07 56.98 1.22 121.08 58.46 62.34 0.28

AGE
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
18-29 20.79 17% 59% 40% 1% 17% 54% 45% 0%
30-44 35.46 29% 50% 49% 1% 29% 46% 53% 1%
45-59 36.68 30% 53% 46% 1% 30% 48% 51% 0%
60+ 29.34 24% 50% 49% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0%

Total 52.43% 46.57% 1.00% 47.96% 51.28% 0.29%
122.27 64.11 56.94 1.22 121.69 58.64 62.70 0.35

INCOME
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
0-15K 11.00 9% 66% 33% 1% 8% 63% 36% 0%
15-30 18.34 15% 61% 38% 1% 15% 57% 42% 0%
30-50 26.90 22% 54% 45% 1% 22% 50% 49% 0%
50-75 28.12 23% 47% 52% 1% 23% 43% 56% 0%
75-100 15.89 13% 49% 50% 1% 14% 45% 55% 0%
100-150 13.45 11% 46% 53% 1% 11% 42% 57% 1%
150-200 4.89 4% 48% 51% 1% 4% 42% 58% 0%
200+ 3.67 3% 42% 57% 1% 3% 35% 63% 1%

Total 52.39% 46.61% 1.00% 48.13% 51.02% 0.14%
122.27 64.06 56.99 1.22 121.40 58.85 62.38 0.17

IDEOLOGY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Lib 26.90 22% 92% 7% 1% 21% 85% 13% 1%
Mod 55.02 45% 59% 40% 1% 45% 54% 45% 0%
Cons 40.35 33% 17% 82% 1% 34% 15% 84% 0%

Total 52.40% 46.60% 1.00% 47.25% 51.54% 0.21%
122.27 64.07 56.98 1.22 121.04 57.77 63.02 0.26

RELIGION
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Prot 64.80 53% 45% 54% 1% 53% 40% 59% 0%
Cath 33.01 27% 52% 47% 1% 27% 47% 52% 0%
Jewish 3.67 3% 77% 22% 1% 3% 74% 25% 0%
Other 8.56 7% 74% 25% 1% 7% 74% 23% 1%
None 12.23 10% 70% 29% 1% 10% 67% 31% 1%

Total 52.38% 46.62% 1.00% 47.99% 50.77% 0.17%
122.27 64.04 57.00 1.22 120.96 58.68 62.07 0.21

MILITARY
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
Yes 22.01 18% 45% 54% 1% 18% 41% 57% 0%
No 100.26 82% 54% 45% 1% 82% 50% 49% 0%

Total 52.38% 46.62% 1.00% 48.38% 50.44% 0.00%
122.27 64.04 57.00 1.22 120.82 59.15 61.67 0.00



___________________________________

[TruthIsAll]

TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Thu May-26-05 12:19 AM
Original message
The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004)
Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM by TruthIsAll
August 12, 1951:
Brooklyn Dodgers: 73-38
New York Giants: 59-51 (13.5 games behind)

The Giants won 37 of their last 44 games.
The Dodgers won 23 of their last 43 games.

They tied for the pennant at 96-58.

The Giants won the playoff when Bobby Thomson (the Flying Scot) hit the Shot Heard Round the World.

It was called the Miracle of Coogan's Bluff, named after the Harlem site on the hill where the Polo Grounds once stood.

The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!

The probability of this miracle was 1 in 737,984.

Compare that to the 1 in 19 trillion chance that 16 states would exceed the margin of error - all in favor of Bush.

*****************************************************
Probability of Giants winning at least 37 of 44 games
= 1 - probability (of winning at most 36 games)
= 1 - BINOMDIST (36,44,59/110,true) = 2.16806E-05
P(G)= 1 in 46124

Probability (Dodgers winning at most 23 of 43 games):
= BINOMDIST (23,43,73/111, TRUE)= 0.064448418
P(D)= 1 in 16

Joint Probability P(G) * P(D) = 1/16 * 1/46124
= 1 in 737,984
*****************************************************

The odds that the MoE would be exceeded in ANY given state for Bush is 1 in 40 (2.5%) at the 95% confidence level.

Probability (at least 16 states exceed the MoE for Bush):
= 1-BINOMDIST(15,50, .025,TRUE)
= 5.24025E-14
= 1 in 19,083,049,268,519

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.indybay.org/olduploads/preelectoralpolls.pdf


Using Pre-Election Polls to Check the Validity of the Final Exit Polls
By Tim Lohrentz
January 6, 2005

It is now well known that the final exit polls from the November 2 Presidential contest between George W.Bush and John Kerry were adjusted (weighted) once actual vote tallies arrived in order to match the
reported vote. This paper will first demonstrate that the weighting process was invalid. In other words, it is mathematically impossible to match the exit polls to the reported results of the popular vote. Then this
paper will compare exit poll results to pre-election poll trends over the last month leading up to the election and then provide some other clues regarding which states may have fraudulent results.

...

The fixed exit polls are trying to convince us of a Bush win based on a mathematical impossibility.Equally important, once you change the weighting of the poll, the whole thing, all the questions, need tobe re-weighted. This can not be explained by the margin of error. Once you do the re-weighting, thereported results will be outside the margin of error of the exit poll. In other words, the national popular vote total is impossible. It is far outside the possible margin of error of the national exit poll survey.

...

Finding the Clues – Where Did Fraud Occur?
The exit polls were manipulated to produce at least three results. One is to get the exit polls to match the "actual" Bush margin of victory in key battleground states, the second is to match results in non-key
states where the reported vote did not match the initial exit poll in order to boost Bush’s popular vote “mandate” and the third was to get the exit polls to show that there was not a major swing toward Kerry during the last 24 hours.

The latter was necessary because if Kerry really had been winning 60 or 65
percent of the undecideds on election day (the people who made up their mind on the day of election),then it would be really hard to explain how Bush wound up winning both the popular vote and the electoral college. Instead, the exit polls were fixed to state that nationally Kerry won the voters who decided on the day of election by a scant margin of 52 to 45. The exit pollsters had a major challenge though – if they fixed the exit polls in the same way for all the states, it would be too obvious that something was amiss.

The first question is how legitimate are the results in the key battleground states that Bush ended up winning. According to the exit polls, the reason that Kerry lost Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida is not that he didn't close well but rather that he was coming from so far behind. For instance, among voters who made up their minds in the last week, we see that Kerry was winning the undecided vote quite well – anywhere from a low of a 56 to 43 margin in Iowa to a high of a 59 to 38 margin in New
Mexico (Table 3).

Table 3:
Preference of Last Week Deciders in Key Battleground States Won by Bush.
% Decided in Last Week, Voted for Kerry, Voted for Bush

Iowa 14% 56% 43%
Nevada 15% 56% 42%
Florida 11% 57% 41%
Ohio 11% 60% 40%
New Mexico 17% 59% 38%

Clearly the problem was not the lack of a strong finish on Kerry’s part. Rather, according to the fixed exit polls, the problem was that Kerry was too far behind and had too much ground to make up. Of voters who made up their minds more than one month before the election, Kerry lost big: He was so far behind by the time of the first debate on September 30, he could not make up the difference. According to the exit poll data, his deficit one month out ranged from seven points down in New Mexico to 12 points down
in Florida.

Table 4:
Preference of Voters Who Decided On their Vote More Than One Month Before the Election, Key Battleground States Won by Bush

% Decided Over 30 Days Before Election, Voted for Kerry, Voted for Bush

Iowa 74% 45% 54%
Nevada 72% 45% 54%
Florida 77% 44% 56%
Ohio 78% 45% 55%
New Mexico 71% 53% 46%

It is important to note that these voters make up the bulk of voters, so the margin of error for this item in the exit poll won’t be much greater than the overall margin of error for the exit polls. We can conclude
that, because of his strong finish in these states, if Kerry had only been behind by 2 to 5 percentage points with one month to go, he would have won most, if not all, of these five states.

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