http://www.democraticunderground.com...737346#2737444

Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts) Sun Jul-23-06 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
6. Brown does not hold a substantial lead over DeWine
Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 02:43 PM by Awsi Dooger

I see that repeated here far too often. It's like TIA's strategy; embracing only the most favorable polls toward Democrats and including them in his election models so he could scream fraud if the result differed. If a firm had several polls he didn't like, he dismissed that firm as biased.

___________________________________________________________

Awsi:
First, let me thank you for your kind words when you learned I was ill.
Quite frankly, I'm surprised you would still refer to my analysis as a "Strategy". To do what: deceive newbies? Do you think I would have spent all those months into fudging the analysis? We know that the Final National and state Exit polls were rigged to match the corrupt recorded vote, so how do you explain that "strategy"? Get your facts straight.

I once taught OTOH a lesson when he attempted to debunk my analysis by linking to four web sites. Unfortunately, he didn't think I would actually read the links. He may have read them, but was so quick to debunk, he didn't fully analyze the facts behind the contents. Maybe he was just lazy. Well, I did - so I called him out on each of his four examples. It's all right here. I strongly suggest you read it:

http://www.progressiveindependent.co...&topic_id=1255

Now, just like OTOH, you have questioned my credibility, by repeating the naysayer myth that I cherry pick polls.

First, here's a friendly challenge. You're a sports betting guru, aren't you? Well, can you compute the odds of the '51 Giants coming from 13.5 games out on Aug. 12 to tie the Brooklyn Dodgers and win the playoff?

Here were the standings on Aug.12:
Brooklyn: 73-38
NY Giants: 59-51

Now calculate the odds. Show us whatcha got. And let's compare it to the odds of Bush exceeding the MoE in 16 state exit polls: 1 in 19 trillion.

Now, back to the subject at hand...
__________________________________________________

Awsi, do you think I cherry-picked these 18 national pre-election polls?

In the Nov.1 Election Model, using the final 18 national polls, I forecast
a 51.63-48.37% Kerry win (two-party). Subtracting 0.5% from Kerry and Bush for third parties, the full Election Model projection was 51.13-47.87, 0.35% from the 12:22am NEP Gender vote 50.78-48.22.

Update to the detailed list below:
Kerry led in 11 of the 18 polls.
On Nov.2 Zogby and Harris had Kerry ahead by 50-47%.
Kerry's weighted average lead was slightly higher: 48-47%.

Final 18 Pre-election Poll Summary:
Kerry won 11, Bush 6, 1 tie
Kerry won 5 of 9 Registered Voter (RV) Polls
Kerry won 6 of 9 Likely Voter (LV) Polls

FINAL NATIONAL PRE-ELECTION POLLS

Undecided vote
Total Poll Total Weighted Average 67% 33%
Sample Sample MoE KERRY BUSH KERRY BUSH
Date 26961 Group 0.60% 47.55 47.30 50.77 48.23

1-Nov Marist 1166 LV 2.87% 50 49 49.69 49.31
1-Nov Econom 2903 RV 1.82% 49 45 51.62 47.38
1-Nov TIPP 1284 LV 2.73% 44 47 52.21 46.79
1-Nov CBS 1125 RV 2.92% 47 48 47.99 51.01
1-Nov Harris 1509 LV 2.52% 48 49 50.30 48.70

31-Oct Zogby 1200 LV 2.83% 47 48 50.47 48.53
31-Oct FOX 1400 RV 2.62% 48 45 54.57 44.43
31-Oct DemCorp 1018 LV 3.07% 48 47 50.33 48.67
31-Oct Gallup 1866 RV 2.27% 48 46 52.08 46.92
31-Oct NBC 1014 LV 3.08% 47 48 48.11 50.89

31-Oct ABC 3511 RV 1.65% 47 48 50.78 48.22
30-Oct ARG 1258 LV 2.76% 49 48 50.74 48.26
30-Oct Pew 2408 RV 2.00% 46 45 51.04 47.96
29-Oct Newsw 1005 RV 3.09% 44 48 49.24 49.76
26-Oct ICR 817 RV 3.43% 48 48 49.00 50.00

24-Oct LAT 1698 RV 2.38% 48 47 52.44 46.56
21-Oct Time 803 LV 3.46% 46 51 45.06 53.94
20-Oct AP 976 LV 3.14% 49 46 51.41 47.59



Polling Data Source:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovS.pdf

BUSH KERRY
Zogby Poll
1 LV 48 47 10/4-31/04 REUTERS/ZOGBY TRACKING POLL: 3-day rolling sample of approx. 1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9.
Bush Kerry Nader Other
10/29-31/04 48 47 1 4

2 LV 49 50 Marist College Poll. Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,166 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,026 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush Kerry Unsure
11/1/2004 49 50 1


3 RV 45 49 Economist YouGov 2903 total; MoE +/-2%
10/30-11/01 Bush Kerry
45 49

4 LV 47 44 TIPP tracking poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,284 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.**
Bush Kerry
10/30 - 11/1/04 47 44

5 RV 48 47 CBS News Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,125 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
Bush/ Kerry/
Cheney Edwards
10/29 - 11/1/04 48 47

6 LV 49 48 The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004: N=1,509 likely voters nationwide who express a preference. MoE ± 2.5.
Bush Kerry Nader Other (vol.)
10/29 - 11/1/04 49 48 2 1

7 RV 45 48 FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=1,400 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,200 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
George John Other Wouldn't
W. Bush Kerry Not Sure Vote (vol.)
10/30-31/04 45 48 7 -

8 LV 47 48 Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
George John Ralph Other Unsure
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.)
10/29-31/04 47 48 1 1 3

9 RV 46 48 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other None/
Cheney Edwards Camejo (vol.) Unsure
10/29-31/04 46 48 1 1 4

10 LV 48 47 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ None/ Unsure
Cheney Edwards Camejo Other (vol.)
10/29-31/04 48 47 1 2 2

11 RV 48 47 ABC News Tracking Poll and Washington Post Tracking Poll. Rolling sample. Fieldwork by TNS. ABC News and The Washington Post share data collection for this tracking poll, but calculate and report the results independently. WASHINGTON POST: Oct. 28-31, 200
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ None/ No
Cheney Edwards Camejo Wouldn't Opinion
ABC News Tracking Poll
10/28-31/04 48 47 1 2 2


12 LV 48 49 American Research Group Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,500 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,258 likely voters (MoE ± 2.8).
Bush/ Kerry/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Unsure
48 49 3

13 RV 45 46 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=2,408 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,925 likely voters (MoE ± 2.5).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Camejo Unsure
10/27-30/04 45 46 1 8

14 RV 48 44 Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.*Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 4); 882 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other (vol.)/
Cheney Edwards Camejo Undecided
10/27-29/04 48 44 1 7

15 RV 48 48 ICR/International Communications Research poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004. N=817 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.4); 741 likely voters (MoE ± 3.6).
Bush/ Kerry/ Other Neither Unsure
Cheney Edwards (vol.) (vol.)
10/22-26/04 48 48 - 1 4

16 RV 47 48 Los Angeles Times Poll. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=1,698 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 881 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Unsure
Cheney Edwards
10/21-24/04 47 48 5

17 LV 51 46 Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=1,059 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 803 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
Bush Kerry Nader Unsure
10/19-21/04 51 46 2 1
.
18 LV 46 49 Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 976 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
Bush/ Kerry/ Nader/ Other/
Cheney Edwards Camejo None (vol.)/
10/18-20/04 46 49 2 3

________________________________________________________________

Awsi, do you think I rigged the National Exit Poll timeline?
Why don't you check the numbers?

Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Jul-18-06 11:32 PM

KERRY NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE DETAIL

We know that the Final was matched to the recorded vote.
Can any naysayer provide a detailed explanation of the underlying process
in generating the timeline from 4pm on Nov.2 to the 1:25pm Final?

That means analyzing the change in weights AND vote shares for the four
timelines shown below - for all demographic categories.

Note:
< change in weights / characteristics from 12:22am to Final (1:25pm)

4pm 7:33pm 12:22am 1:25pm 4pm 7:33pm 12:22am 1:25pm
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 8349 11027 13047 13660

Category Weighting Kerry Percentage
GENDER
Male 42 46 46 46 47 47 47 44 <<<
Fem 58 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.48 50.78 50.78 47.78
VOTE (mm) 61.72 62.08 62.08 58.42

REGION
East 23 22 22 22 58 58 58 56 <<
Midwt 25 26 26 26 50 50 50 48 <<
South 31 31 31 32 44 45 45 42 <<<
West 21 21 21 20 53 53 53 50 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.61 50.84 50.84 48.24
VOTE (mm) 61.88 62.16 62.16 58.98

PARTY ID
Democrat 39 38 38 37< 90 90 90 89 <
Repub 36 36 35 37<< 7 7 7 6 <
Indep 25 26 27 26< 52 52 52 49 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.24 50.69 47.89
VOTE (mm) 61.89 61.42 61.97 58.55

IDEOLOGY
Liberal 22 22 22 21 < 86 87 86 85 <
Moderate 45 45 45 45 58 57 57 54 <<<
Conservative 33 33 33 34 < 16 16 16 15 <
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.3 50.07 49.85 47.25
VOTE (mm) 61.50 61.22 60.95 57.77

VOTED IN 2000
NoVote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 <<<
Gore 39 38 39 37<< 91 91 91 90 <
Bush 42 41 41 43<< 9 9 10 9 <
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 71 71
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.41 48.48
VOTE (mm) 62.36 62.23 62.85 59.27

WHEN DECIDED
Today 6 6 6 5 52 54 53 52 <
Last3Days 3 3 3 4 50 54 53 55 >>
LastWeek 2 2 2 2 48 48 48 48
LastMonth 10 10 10 10 61 61 60 54 <<<<<<<
Over30Days 79 79 79 79 50 50 50 46 <<<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.18 51.42 51.23 47.5
VOTE (mm) 62.57 62.87 62.63 58.07

EDUCATION
NoHS 4 4 4 4 50 52 52 50 <<
H.S. 22 22 22 22 50 51 51 47 <<<<
College 30 31 31 32 < 48 47 47 46 <
Grad 26 26 26 26 48 49 48 46 <<
PostGrad 18 17 17 16 < 58 58 58 55 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.32 50.34 50.21 47.82
VOTE (mm) 61.52 61.55 61.39 58.46

RACE
WM 33 36 36 36 40 41 41 37 <<<<
WF 44 41 41 41 47 47 47 44 <<<
NWM 10 10 10 10 69 70 69 67 <<
NWF 13 13 13 13 77 77 77 75 <<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.79 51.04 50.94 47.81
VOTE (mm) 62.10 62.40 62.28 58.45

AGE
18-29 15 17 17 17 56 56 56 54 <<
30-44 27 27 27 29<< 48 49 49 46 <<<
45-59 31 30 30 30 52 51 51 48 <<<
60+ 27 26 26 24<< 48 48 48 46 <<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.44 50.53 50.53 47.96
VOTE (mm) 61.67 61.78 61.78 58.64

INCOME
0-15 9 9 9 8 < 68 66 66 63 <<<
15-30 15 15 15 15 59 59 59 57 <<
30-50 22 22 22 22 53 52 52 50 <<
50-75 22 23 23 23 46 45 45 43 <<
75-100 14 13 13 14 < 49 49 49 45 <<<<
100-150 11 11 11 11 44 45 45 42 <<<
150-200 4 4 4 4 45 47 47 42 <<<<<
200+ 3 3 3 3 40 41 41 35 <<<<<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.45 51.01 51.01 48.13
VOTE (mm) 62.90 62.36 62.36 58.84

RELIGION
Protestant 53 53 53 53 43 43 43 40 <<<
Catholic 27 27 27 27 50 50 50 47 <<<
Jewish 3 3 3 3 77 77 77 74 <<<
Other 7 7 7 7 76 75 75 74 <
None 10 10 10 10 69 70 70 67 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.82 50.85 50.85 47.99
VOTE (mm) 62.13 62.17 62.17 58.67

MILITARY
InMilitary 18 18 18 18 43 43 43 41 <<
NoMilitary 82 82 82 82 52 53 53 50 <<<
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.38 51.2 51.2 48.38
VOTE (mm) 61.59 62.60 62.60 59.15

_______________________________________________________________

So you think I cherry-picked these final state pre-election and exit polls?
I used ARG, Zogby, Survey USA, Mason-Dixon, Gallup, etc for the pre-election model. Check them out. In the Nov.1 election model, I forecast a Kerry two- party win:51.8-48.2%. So I guess my choice of polls and undecided voter assumptions were pretty good.

As for the state exits, you can check them also. I used the 12:22am state exits downloaded by Jonathan Simon. The simulation run below gave Kerry a 50.55-48.45% win based on the pre-election polls and a 50.8-48.2% win based on the exit polls.


Kerry Electoral Vote MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
319 Mean STATE PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS
320 Median
364 Maximum
259 Minimum

Pre-Election Exit Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Kerry
MoE MoE Pre Pre Exit Exit PreSim ExitSim Final
Wtd Avg 0.60 0.44 47.50 47.02 50.06 49.03 50.55 50.80 48.32

AL 9 3.89 4.28 39.00 57.00 40.48 58.06 41.20 40.50 36.86
AK 3 3.76 3.82 30.00 57.00 38.76 57.80 43.39 43.31 35.61
AR 6 3.95 2.72 45.00 50.00 46.13 52.87 46.14 46.16 44.40
AZ 10 3.96 3.13 46.00 48.00 46.71 52.82 45.74 45.59 44.55
CA 55 3.95 2.67 49.00 42.00 54.64 43.40 55.36 55.45 54.43

CO 9 3.96 2.34 47.00 48.00 48.12 49.94 46.70 46.73 47.08
CT 7 3.94 3.92 52.00 42.00 57.65 40.94 57.16 57.27 54.31
DE 3 3.95 4.18 45.00 38.00 57.27 40.73 62.51 62.61 53.36
DC 3 2.61 2.31 78.00 11.00 89.80 8.20 89.78 89.68 89.43
FL 27 3.96 2.20 47.00 47.00 49.70 49.84 50.56 50.56 47.13

GA 15 3.94 2.97 42.00 52.00 42.92 56.64 42.19 42.31 41.41
HI 4 3.96 5.25 45.00 45.00 53.32 46.68 49.63 48.83 54.01
ID 4 3.74 4.69 30.00 59.00 32.85 65.70 34.49 30.09 30.26
IL 21 3.93 3.12 54.00 42.00 56.56 42.44 56.58 58.67 54.82
IN 11 3.88 3.80 39.00 58.00 40.56 58.44 40.72 41.11 39.26

IA 7 3.95 2.35 50.00 44.00 49.70 48.38 49.83 49.70 49.29
KS 6 3.85 4.38 37.00 60.00 34.10 64.45 43.11 35.88 36.62
KY 8 3.90 3.59 39.00 56.00 40.16 58.38 38.58 38.76 39.69
LA 9 3.94 2.86 40.00 48.00 43.85 54.70 48.32 43.63 42.31
ME 4 3.93 2.64 50.00 39.00 53.77 44.29 56.08 53.21 53.57

MD 10 3.93 3.68 54.00 43.00 56.16 42.30 54.88 55.03 55.97
MA 12 3.62 3.72 64.00 27.00 65.16 32.88 68.01 66.25 62.09
MI 17 3.95 2.37 52.00 45.00 51.50 46.50 54.46 52.50 51.25
MN 10 3.95 2.51 52.00 44.00 53.52 44.48 55.19 53.83 51.20
MS 6 3.94 4.12 42.00 51.00 43.00 56.53 47.03 42.43 40.22

MO 11 3.95 2.53 44.00 49.00 47.00 52.00 46.14 46.14 46.10
MT 3 3.86 4.54 36.00 57.00 37.51 57.98 38.34 37.07 38.57
NE 5 3.76 4.04 32.00 61.00 36.00 62.52 37.31 36.30 32.72
NV 5 3.96 2.56 49.00 49.00 49.16 47.88 48.93 48.89 48.09
NH 4 3.96 2.72 47.00 47.00 54.94 44.06 55.22 55.75 50.35

NJ 15 3.94 2.99 50.00 42.00 54.70 42.76 57.35 57.39 52.95
NM 5 3.96 2.66 49.00 49.00 50.08 47.46 51.98 52.91 49.05
NY 31 3.89 2.96 57.00 39.00 62.75 35.35 58.89 63.42 58.39
NC 15 3.96 2.52 47.00 50.00 46.64 51.94 48.71 45.92 43.59
ND 3 3.86 4.36 35.00 55.00 32.57 64.43 41.17 30.60 35.50

OH 20 3.96 2.65 50.00 47.00 52.06 47.94 51.20 51.68 48.71
OK 7 3.68 2.85 28.00 61.00 34.56 64.96 37.12 34.71 34.43
OR 7 3.95 3.60 50.00 44.00 50.25 47.85 54.96 49.77 51.60
PA 21 3.95 2.67 50.00 45.00 54.12 45.35 52.98 54.13 50.96
RI 4 3.87 3.96 56.00 36.00 62.65 34.88 59.26 63.34 59.57

SC 8 3.92 2.81 42.00 55.00 45.13 53.44 44.50 45.76 40.96
SD 3 3.94 2.94 42.00 52.00 36.47 61.00 45.17 38.40 38.44
TN 11 3.96 2.75 47.00 50.00 40.56 58.00 50.62 41.13 42.53
TX 34 3.85 2.78 37.00 59.00 36.30 62.24 42.24 36.90 38.23
UT 5 3.47 3.81 24.00 69.00 29.08 68.08 26.11 31.45 26.03

VT 3 3.92 4.27 53.00 40.00 63.65 33.25 52.87 64.06 59.22
VA 13 3.96 3.11 47.00 51.00 47.00 51.00 48.79 49.57 45.56
WA 11 3.95 2.54 52.00 44.00 53.48 43.64 51.23 54.57 52.86
WV 5 3.96 2.82 45.00 49.00 44.53 54.00 48.25 42.80 43.20
WI 10 3.95 2.49 51.00 44.00 49.24 48.82 52.58 49.31 49.76
WY 3 3.66 4.20 29.00 65.00 30.94 65.53 30.49 30.39 29.13
___________________________________________________________________________

How about these monthly pre-election poll numbers? Do you want to check them for accuracy? Be my guest.

Note: < indicates net Kerry polling gain (loss) in the final poll.
Kerry gained in 13 of the final 15 polls. The average gain was 4%.

NATIONAL POLL TREND

Current Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff

1.TIPP
Feb 44 41 3 55.3 44.8 10.5
Mar 45 43 2 54.0 46.0 8.0
Apr 40 44 -4 52.0 48.0 4.0
May 43 42 1 54.3 45.8 8.5
June 43 44 -1 52.8 47.3 5.5
July 46 43 3 54.3 45.8 8.5
Aug 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0
Sept 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5
Oct 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5 < -2
AVG 43.89 43.44 0.44 53.39 46.61 6.78

2.ABC
Feb 52 43 9 55.8 44.3 11.5
Mar 53 44 9 55.3 44.8 10.5
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 53 45 8 54.5 45.5 9.0
July 47 49 -2 50.0 50.0 0.0
Aug 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
Sept 45 51 -6 48.0 52.0 -4.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5 < +7
AVG 49.33 47.00 2.33 52.08 47.92 4.17

3.AP
Jan 37 54 -17 43.8 56.3 -12.5
Mar 45 46 -1 51.8 48.3 3.5
Apr 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5
May 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5
July 45 49 -4 49.5 50.5 -1.0
Aug 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sept 42 51 -9 47.3 52.8 -5.5
Oct 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5 < +12
AVG 44.88 46.75 -1.88 51.16 48.84 2.31

4.Nwk
Jan 41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5
Feb 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
Mar 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5
Apr 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
May 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5
July 51 45 6 54.0 46.0 8.0
Aug 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0
Sept 45 50 -5 48.8 51.3 -2.5
Oct 45 48 -3 50.3 49.8 0.5 < +2
AVG 48.11 45.56 2.56 52.86 47.14 5.72

5.ARG
Jan 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
Feb 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Mar 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
Apr 50 44 6 54.5 45.5 9.0
May 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5
June 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
July 49 45 4 53.5 46.5 7.0
Aug 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5
Sep 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5 < +2
AVG 48.44 45.44 3.00 53.03 46.97 6.06


6.NBC
Jan 35 54 -19 43.3 56.8 -13.5
Mar 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5
May 42 46 -4 51.0 49.0 2.0
June 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5
July 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Aug 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Sep 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5 <+2
AVG 44.38 46.75 -2.38 51.03 48.97 2.06

7.FOX
Jan 32 54 -22 42.5 57.5 -15.0
Feb 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0
Mar 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0
Apr 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5
May 42 42 0 54.0 46.0 8.0
June 42 48 -6 49.5 50.5 -1.0
July 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 43 45 -2 52.0 48.0 4.0
Oct 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5 <+2
AVG 43.44 44.56 -1.11 52.44 47.56 4.89

8.CBS
Jan 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Feb 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
Mar 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Apr 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
May 49 41 8 56.5 43.5 13.0
June 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
July 49 44 5 54.3 45.8 8.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 41 49 -8 48.5 51.5 -3.0
Oct 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5 <+7
AVG 46.44 44.56 1.89 53.19 46.81 6.39


9.Gallup
Jan 43 55 -12 44.5 55.5 -11.0
Feb 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
Mar 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0
Apr 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
July 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5
Aug 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5
Sep 44 52 -8 47.0 53.0 -6.0
Oct 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0 <+10
AVG 48.22 47.67 0.56 51.31 48.69 2.61

10.PEW
Jan 41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5
Feb 47 47 0 51.5 48.5 3.0
Mar 48 44 4 54.0 46.0 8.0
Apr 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5
May 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
June 46 48 -2 50.5 49.5 1.0
July 46 44 2 53.5 46.5 7.0
Aug 47 45 2 53.0 47.0 6.0
Sep 40 48 -8 49.0 51.0 -2.0
Oct 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5 <+9
AVG 46.33 45.78 0.56 52.25 47.75 4.50

11.LAT
Apr 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5
June 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5
July 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Aug 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5
Sep 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5 <+5
AVG 47.71 46.43 1.29 52.11 47.89 4.21

12.ZOGBY
Mar 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0
Apr 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5
May 47 42 5 55.3 44.8 10.5
June 44 42 2 54.5 45.5 9.0
July 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5
Aug 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5
Sep 44 47 -3 50.8 49.3 1.5
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5 <+2
AVG 46.88 44.38 2.50 53.44 46.56 6.88

13.TIME
Jan 43 54 -11 45.3 54.8 -9.5
Feb 48 50 -2 49.5 50.5 -1.0
May 51 46 5 53.3 46.8 6.5
July 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5
Aug 46 46 0 52.0 48.0 4.0
Sep 44 48 -4 50.0 50.0 0.0
Oct 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5 <-1
AVG 48.00 47.43 0.57 51.43 48.57 2.86

14.DemC
Feb 51 47 4 52.5 47.5 5.0
Mar 47 50 -3 49.3 50.8 -1.5
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0
June 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5
July 50 47 3 52.3 47.8 4.5
Aug 52 45 7 54.3 45.8 8.5
Sep 49 49 0 50.5 49.5 1.0
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5 <+1
AVG 49.22 47.67 1.56 51.56 48.44 3.11

15.Marist
July 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5
Sep 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5 <+3
AVG 46.00 45.75 0.25 52.19 47.81 4.38