THE GENDER SPLIT: PREPARE TO BE SHOCKED!

[TruthIsAll]

Now we know why the gender weights were never changed (from 54% Female/46% Male) in the Final Exit Poll: Kerry would still win, regardless of any plausible change in the mix.

Note that 54/46 (rounded) is probably correct, since it's confirmed by the census and state exit polls (53.51% and 53.76%), but that is not the point here.

EVEN WITH A RIDICULOUS 64% MALE/ 36% FEMALE TURNOUT, KERRY TIES BUSH!

THE FINAL EXIT POLL (THE ONLY TIMELINE WHICH BUSH WON) COULD ONLY BE MATCHED TO THE RECORDED VOTE BY CHANGING THE KERRY/BUSH VOTING PERCENTAGES!

Ask yourself: Why does the gender split stay constant from the 12:22AM (13047 respondents) exit poll timeline to the 1:25PM (13660) final, unlike the following demographics:

HOW VOTED IN 2000: 41 Bush/39 Kerry changed to 43/37.
PARTY ID: 38 DEM/35 REP changed to 37/37.

One would expect the gender split to change slightly as well. Well, actually it was changed to 54/46 at the 7:33pm time line from 58/42 at 4:00pm - and stayed constant thereafter.

Remember when the naysayers claimed that the early exit polls were biased in Kerry's favor because they oversampled women? What ever became of that canard?

NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE:
3:59pm (8349) Female 58%/ Male 42%; Kerry led 51-48
7:33pm (11027) Female 54%/ Male 46%; Kerry led 51-48
12:22am (13047) Female 54%/ Male 46%; Kerry led 51-48
1:25pm (13660) Female 54%/ Male 46%; Bush led 51-48

Why were the weights unchanged in the FINAL? Well, unlike "How Voted in 2000" and "Party ID", changing the Gender weights had no effect on the result: KERRY WOULD STILL WIN.

Once again, why change the Gender mix from the 12:22am time line, especially if they were within the MoE?

To repeat: CHANGING THE WEIGHTS WOULD HAVE NO EFFECT. SO THEREFORE THE VOTE PERCENTAGES HAD TO BE CHANGED.

And why change Party ID and How Voted weights, if they were within the MoE?

Here's why: IN ORDER TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE, THE WEIGHTS AND PERCENTAGES HAD TO BE CHANGED. CHANGING ONLY THE PERCENTAGES IS NOT ENOUGH TO DO THE TRICK.

Food for thought for those who dare to think.

Now lets play "what-if" with the gender mix.
____________________________________________________________

PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents

GENDER MIX Votes Kerry Bush Other
Male 46% 56.20 47% 52% 1%
Female 54% 65.97 54% 45% 1%

Total 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00%
Vote 122.17 62.04 58.91 1.22

KERRY WINS BY 3.1 MM VOTES WITH 50.78%

_____________________________________________________________

FINAL EXIT POLL - no change in weights
Nov. 3, 1:25pm, 13660 respondents

MIX Kerry Bush Other
Male 46% 44% 55% 1%
Female 54% 51% 48% 1%

Total 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00%
Vote 122.17 58.37 62.58 1.22

BUSH WINS BY 4.2 MM VOTES


____________________________________________________

Scenario I:
50% MALE /50% FEMALE

KERRY WINS BY 2.45MM VOTES WITH 50.50%

GENDER MIX Votes Kerry Bush Other
Male 50% 61.09 47% 52% 1%
Female 50% 61.09 54% 45% 1%

Total 100% 50.50% 48.50% 1.00%
Vote 122.17 61.70 59.25 1.22


____________________________________________________

Scenario II
54% MALE/ 46% FEMALE

KERRY WINS BY 1.75MM VOTES WITH 50.22%

GENDER MIX Votes Kerry Bush Other
Male 54% 65.97 47% 52% 1%
Female 46% 56.20 54% 45% 1%

Total 100% 50.22% 48.78% 1.00%
Vote 122.17 61.35 59.60 1.22


____________________________________________________

Scenario III

64% MALE/ 36% FEMALE

A VIRTUAL TIE: KERRY 49.52% / BUSH 49.48%!

GENDER MIX Votes Kerry Bush Other
Male 64% 78.19 47% 52% 1%
Female 36% 43.98 54% 45% 1%

Total 100% 49.52% 49.48% 1%
Vote 122.17 60.50 60.45 1.22

[Kat]

:congrats:

[davidgmills]

Well if we can't change the gender, we better change how the genders voted because the census won't ask them how they voted.

I read something (I think it was on one of your posts) that only about 30% of voters were white males [call them the Bush base or the Bush al quaida]. That sure does not give rBr much to work with.

[All_The_States]

Post this on Mitofsky's board repeatedly even if he bans you!!!! Post it everywhere, the smoking gun GENDER ANALYSIS must be seen by all eyes!

It proves without a doubt, that the gender had to be switched in order to match the vote!!!!!!

Guess what that means?!????

They stole the female's vote and made it become male!!!!!!

:woohoo:

[mom person]

as long as it is non genital. :banana:

[Michael Collins]

Count on it!

[davidgmills]

Or as you prefer, to call it gender.

[All_The_States]

They are based on unverified "non-responders" now, according to his main mouth-piece Doctor Hand!

This almost reminds me of a bad episode of Inspector Gadget.....Mitofsky has gone off the deepend. :rofl: