CLINCHER IV: CENSUS MATCHES NAT EXIT POLL (EDUCATION, RACE, GENDER, INCOME)

[TruthIsAll]

Of course, I mean the near-pristine National Exit Poll at the 12:22am time line (13047 respondents), NOT the Final at 1:25pm, which was highly contaminated when it was forced to match the (cough) recorded DRE-enabled vote count.

When we determined that the National Exit Poll (1:25pm, 13660 respondents) demographic "HOW VOTED IN 2000" Bush/Gore 43/37% weightings were totally impossible, simple logic dictated that all the other demographic weights and/or percentages had to be fiction as well.

If only ONE demographic which has been matched to the vote is proven to be impossible, then all other demographics, likewise matched to the vote, must also be impossible. A further bonus: we get to eat our cake and keep it, too, because that also proves that the final vote must be bogus.

That's a very simple deduction, yet it's a difficult concept for sophisticated naysayers to accept, even though they surely see the logic. Give them credit; they are expert in throwing fog in truth's way.

"How voted in 2000" was easy to disprove - the basic weightings are directly verifiable. That's why we won the infamous GAME thread, the scene of my last post at DU. Proving that the other ten demographics are also bogus is more much more difficult. For example, how does one verify the turnout (weight) of age 6o+ voters as a percent of the total 2004 vote?

We've already dealt with How Voted in 2000 (the orginal Clincher), Gender, Party-ID and Region in other threads. Here's more evidence to throw at the naysayers.

Today we use the Census voting survey to add three more demographics to the growing list of Final National Exit Poll implausibilities: Race/gender, Income and Education. The equivalent census demographic weights match very closely to the National Exit Poll (13047). Compare. Kerry wins them all.

Four demographics remain to be toppled: religion, when decided, age and ideology.

Later.
________________________________________________________________

CENSUS 2004 DEMOGRAPHIC VOTE ANALYSIS

The purpose of this analysis is to determine how closely the Census demographics (race/gender, income and education) matched the National Exit Poll (12:22am). The popular vote split is calculated using exit poll percentages applied to the equivalent census weights.

For these three demographics, Kerry's National Exit Poll margin ranged from 2.75 - 4.89 million votes. His Census margin ranged from 2.17 - 2.21 million, assuming the 2004 recorded vote total: 122.27 million. But according to the Census, 125.74 million voted.

That's plausible. We know millions of votes (mostly democratic) are spoiled or lost in each election. Mitofsky doesn't match the final exit poll to include spoiled votes, unfortunately - he only matches to the vote count.

Hmmm....

________________________________________________________________

Census vs. National Exit Poll Vote Demographic Summary

DEMOGRAPHIC
Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader Kerry
Pct Pct Pct Vote Vote Vote Margin

EDUCATION
NatExit 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 61.66 58.91 1.70 2.75
Census 50.21% 48.40% 1.40% 61.39 59.18 1.71 2.20

RACE AND GENDER
NatExit 50.94% 47.86% 1.00% 62.28 58.52 1.22 3.77
Census 50.30% 48.52% 1.00% 61.50 59.33 1.22 2.17

INCOME
NatExit 51.39% 47.39% 0.94% 62.83 57.94 1.15 4.89
Census 50.30% 48.50% 0.93% 61.50 59.30 1.13 2.21

________________________________________________________________


EDUCATION
Nat Exit Poll

Pct Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Mix Votes Pct Pct Pct Vote Vote Vote
NoHS 4% 4.89 53% 46% 1% 2.59 2.25 0.05
HSGrad 22% 26.90 50% 48% 2% 13.45 12.91 0.54
College 31% 37.90 48% 51% 1% 18.19 19.33 0.38
ColGr 26% 31.79 49% 50% 1% 15.58 15.90 0.32
PostG 17% 20.79 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42

Total 100% 122.27 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 61.66 58.91 1.70


CENSUS

Pct Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Mix Votes Pct Pct Pct Vote Vote Vote
NoHS 8.06% 9.85 53% 46% 1% 5.22 4.53 0.10
HSGr 28.55% 34.91 50% 48% 2% 17.45 16.76 0.70
Col 30.96% 37.85 48% 51% 1% 18.17 19.31 0.38
ColGr 21.14% 25.85 49% 50% 1% 12.67 12.92 0.26
PostG 11.30% 13.82 57% 41% 2% 7.88 5.66 0.28

Total 100% 122.27 50.21% 48.40% 1.40% 61.39 59.18 1.71

________________________________________________________________


RACE AND GENDER
National Exit Poll

Pct Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Mix Votes Pct Pct Pct Vote Vote Vote

WM 36% 44.02 41% 58% 1% 18.05 25.53 0.44
WF 41% 50.13 47% 52% 1% 23.56 26.07 0.50
NWM 10% 12.23 69% 28% 1% 8.44 3.42 0.12
NWF 13% 15.90 77% 22% 1% 12.24 3.50 0.16

Total 100% 122.27 50.94% 47.86% 1.00% 62.28 58.52 1.22


CENSUS
Pct Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Mix Votes Pct Pct Pct Vote Vote Vote

White 79.19% 96.82 44.19% 54.81% 1% 42.79 53.06 0.97
NonW 20.81% 25.45 73.52% 24.61% 1% 18.71 6.26 0.25

Total 100% 122.27 50.30% 48.52% 1.00% 61.50 59.33 1.22

________________________________________________________________


INCOME
National Exit Poll

Pct Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Mix Votes Pct Pct Pct Vote Vote Vote

0-15K 9% 11.00 65% 34% 1% 7.15 3.74 0.11
15-30 15% 18.34 60% 38% 1% 11.00 6.97 0.18
30-50 22% 26.90 53% 46% 1% 14.26 12.37 0.27
50-75 23% 28.12 46% 53% 1% 12.94 14.90 0.28

75-100 13% 15.90 48% 51% 0% 7.63 8.11 0.00
100-150 11% 13.45 45% 53% 2% 6.05 7.13 0.27
150-200 4% 4.89 47% 53% 0% 2.30 2.59 0.00
200+ 3% 3.67 41% 58% 1% 1.50 2.13 0.04

Total 100% 122.27 51.39% 47.39% 0.94% 62.83 57.94 1.15

CENSUS
Pct Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Mix Votes Pct Pct Pct Vote Vote Vote

0-15K 5.73% 7.01 65% 34% 1% 4.56 2.38 0.07
15-30 12.08% 14.77 60% 38% 1% 8.86 5.61 0.15
30-50 20.58% 25.16 53% 46% 1% 13.33 11.57 0.25
50-75 24.02% 29.37 46% 53% 1% 13.51 15.57 0.29

75-100 15.70% 19.19 48% 51% 0% 9.21 9.79 0.00
100-150 13.55% 16.57 45% 53% 2% 7.46 8.78 0.33
150-200 5.34% 6.53 47% 53% 0% 3.07 3.46 0.00
200+ 3.00% 3.67 41% 58% 1% 1.50 2.13 0.04

Total 100% 122.27 50.30% 48.50% 0.93% 61.50 59.30 1.13

[davidgmills]

n/t

[All_The_States]

Boy someone needs to post this everywhere, especially the Gender analysis. I'd be amazed if Mitofsky even has a rebuttal, he'll probably go silent. Dr. Other & company wouldn't be able to handle themselves!

:wow:

[TruthIsAll]

kiwi_expat (427 posts) Mon Oct-17-05 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #30
32. Why assume that ALL 1:25pm demographics are "impossible"?
Edited on Mon Oct-17-05 09:08 AM by kiwi_expat

"If only ONE demographic which has been matched to the vote is proven to be impossible, then all other demographics, likewise matched to the vote, must also be impossible." -TIA

Everyone (Mitofsky, included) agrees that the final exit poll demographics are made-up ("fiction", if you like). But that doesn't automatically make them incorrect. Some might be correct and some might not be. Mitofsky probably focused on making some demographics plausible (e.g., gender) and neglected others.

_________________________________________________________________

Well Kiwi, here's why: Simple Logic.

LET A= HOW VOTED DEMOGRAPHIC
LET B = VOTE COUNT

IF A = FALSE THEN
IF A = B
THEN B = FALSE
ENDIF
ENDIF

LET C = INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC

IF C= B THEN
IF B = FALSE (which it is, see above)
THEN C= FALSE
ENDIF
ENDIF


AND SO ON FOR ALL OTHER DEMOGRAPHICS

[davidgmills]

Do you get the feeling that people just don't care about logic?