INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL - REVISED, USER-FRIENDLY, COMPLETE
If you have not seen it, take a look. If you have, it's been revised with new features added.
Just three inputs are necessary:
1) Enter the calculation mode: 1= pre-election, 2= exit poll.
2) Kerry's undecided voter allocation (usually 60-80% for challengers)
3) Exit Poll Cluster effect, the percentage increase in Margin of Error (MoE). Naysayers would like it to be 60%, but its really 20-40% at best.
To Lurking naysayers, it's getting harder to avoid the obvious:
Kerry won, every which way from Sunday.
Which do you believe, these 123 polls which all confirm that Kerry won...
1) 51 State pre-election polls (adjusted for the undecided vote)
2) 51 State exit polls
3) 18 National Pre-election polls (adjusted for the undecided vote)
4) 3 National Exit polls (3:59pm, 7:33pm, 12:22am) timeline
the Final 1:25pm National Exit Poll (13660 respondents), the only one he lost. That's because the 12:22am poll (13047 respondents), which should have been the final, was "weighted" to match the final vote.
It's so user friendly, even I, autorank, can use it.
Send this link around folks, bring it back to PI.com to this post. This should be huge!