TruthIsAll
01-07-2006, 10:08 AM
State Exit Poll Response Analysis
Given:
a) State Exit Poll response rates (73,607 total sample)
b) Bush two-party state vote shares
c) Bush two-party national vote share (51.24%)
Determine:
a) Bush vote share of state exit poll non-responders (refusers)
required to match the recorded state vote share.
b) Probability of the deviation between state responder and refuser vote
shares (from a).
c) Probability of the deviation between total state responder and refuser
vote shares (from b) required to match the recorded Bush 51.24% vote.
Even assuming an extremely conservative 1% MoE for the total sample (it's really 0.37%), the probability of a 3.7% (49.5-53.2) deviation between the average Bush responder and refuser vote shares is 1.22e-13 (1 in 8 trillion).
Total Total Pct Total Pct Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Prob of
Asked Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Vote Vote Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Difference
Total 138158 73607 53.3% 64551 46.7% 70791 51.2% 36431 49.5% 34361 53.2% 1.22E-13
HIGH BUSH
UT 1339 798 59.6% 541 40.4% 982 73.3% 559 70.1% 423 78.2% 0.00%
WY 1036 684 66.0% 352 34.0% 729 70.3% 465 67.9% 264 74.9% 0.02%
ID 884 559 63.2% 325 36.8% 613 69.3% 373 66.7% 240 73.9% 0.01%
NE 1180 785 66.5% 395 33.5% 789 66.8% 498 63.5% 291 73.6% 0.00%
OK 289 1539 53.2% 1354 46.8% 1897 65.6% 1005 65.3% 892 65.9% 37.29%
MODERATE BUSH
ND 1030 649 63.0% 381 37.0% 658 63.9% 431 66.4% 227 59.6% 0.03%
AK 1711 910 53.2% 801 46.8% 1082 63.2% 545 59.9% 537 67.1% 0.01%
AL 1122 654 58.3% 468 41.7% 706 62.9% 385 58.9% 320 68.5% 0.00%
KS 1132 730 64.5% 402 35.5% 712 62.9% 477 65.4% 234 58.3% 0.01%
TX 2866 1671 58.3% 1195 41.7% 1763 61.5% 1055 63.2% 708 59.2% 2.16%
SD 3501 1495 42.7% 2006 57.3% 2133 60.9% 936 62.6% 1197 59.7% 6.85%
IN 1470 926 63.0% 544 37.0% 889 60.5% 562 60.7% 327 60.1% 38.19%
MT 1658 640 38.6% 1018 61.4% 1002 60.4% 378 59.0% 624 61.3% 12.35%
MS 1517 798 52.6% 719 47.4% 910 60.0% 473 59.2% 438 60.9% 20.59%
KY 2085 1034 49.6% 1051 50.4% 1240 59.5% 587 56.8% 653 62.2% 0.31%
SC 2921 1735 59.4% 1186 40.6% 1713 58.6% 941 54.2% 772 65.1% 0.00%
GA 2404 1536 63.9% 868 36.1% 1403 58.4% 874 56.9% 529 60.9% 1.93%
LA 3492 1669 47.8% 1823 52.2% 2002 57.3% 926 55.5% 1075 59.0% 3.72%
TN 2660 1774 66.7% 886 33.3% 1521 57.2% 1044 58.8% 477 53.9% 0.55%
WV 3536 1722 48.7% 1814 51.3% 1997 56.5% 944 54.8% 1053 58.1% 4.80%
NC 4120 2167 52.6% 1953 47.4% 2317 56.2% 1142 52.7% 1175 60.2% 0.01%
AR 2447 1402 57.3% 1045 42.7% 1352 55.3% 749 53.4% 604 57.8% 1.27%
AZ 3088 1859 60.2% 1229 39.8% 1696 54.9% 987 53.1% 710 57.8% 0.84%
VA 2537 1431 56.4% 1106 43.6% 1373 54.1% 745 52.0% 629 56.8% 0.72%
MO 4591 2158 47.0% 2433 53.0% 2462 53.6% 1133 52.5% 1328 54.6% 14.60%
EVEN
CO 5133 2515 49.0% 2618 51.0% 2696 52.5% 1259 50.1% 1437 54.9% 0.71%
FL 5128 2846 55.5% 2282 44.5% 2685 52.4% 1449 50.9% 1236 54.2% 4.96%
NV 4310 2116 49.1% 2194 50.9% 2212 51.3% 1044 49.3% 1168 53.2% 2.37%
OH 4451 1963 44.1% 2488 55.9% 2273 51.1% 941 47.9% 1332 53.5% 0.22%
NM 3429 1951 56.9% 1478 43.1% 1728 50.4% 949 48.7% 779 52.7% 1.95%
IA 4757 2502 52.6% 2255 47.4% 2394 50.3% 1234 49.3% 1160 51.5% 13.86%
WI 4020 2223 55.3% 1797 44.7% 2002 49.8% 1107 49.8% 895 49.8% 48.99%
NH 4202 1849 44.0% 2353 56.0% 2072 49.3% 823 44.5% 1249 53.1% 0.00%
PA 4124 1930 46.8% 2194 53.2% 2010 48.7% 880 45.6% 1130 51.5% 0.13%
MI 4884 2452 50.2% 2432 49.8% 2358 48.3% 1163 47.4% 1194 49.1% 19.90%
MN 4808 2178 45.3% 2630 54.7% 2319 48.2% 989 45.4% 1331 50.6% 0.39%
OR 2008 1064 53.0% 944 47.0% 961 47.9% 519 48.8% 442 46.9% 16.82%
MODERATE KERRY
NJ 2546 1520 59.7% 1026 40.3% 1187 46.6% 667 43.9% 520 50.7% 0.02%
WA 3946 2123 53.8% 1823 46.2% 1829 46.4% 954 44.9% 875 48.0% 5.85%
DE 1339 770 57.5% 569 42.5% 618 46.2% 320 41.6% 298 52.4% 0.00%
HI 934 499 53.4% 435 46.6% 426 45.6% 233 46.7% 193 44.4% 11.76%
ME 3210 1968 61.3% 1242 38.7% 1458 45.4% 889 45.2% 569 45.8% 37.04%
IL 2756 1392 50.5% 1364 49.5% 1239 45.0% 616 44.3% 623 45.7% 23.83%
CA 3697 1919 51.9% 1778 48.1% 1656 44.8% 823 42.9% 834 46.9% 2.06%
CT 1710 872 51.0% 838 49.0% 765 44.7% 362 41.5% 403 48.1% 0.04%
MD 1684 1000 59.4% 684 40.6% 731 43.4% 430 43.0% 302 44.1% 27.64%
HIGH KERRY
NY 2508 1452 57.9% 1056 42.1% 1021 40.7% 523 36.0% 498 47.1% 0.00%
VT 1290 685 53.1% 605 46.9% 512 39.7% 235 34.3% 277 45.8% 0.00%
RI 1830 809 44.2% 1021 55.8% 722 39.4% 289 35.8% 432 42.3% 0.04%
MA 1573 889 56.5% 684 43.5% 586 37.3% 298 33.5% 288 42.1% 0.00%
DC 1486 795 53.5% 691 46.5% 141 9.5% 66 8.4% 74 10.8% 11.06%
Total 138158 73607 53.3% 64551 46.7% 70791 51.2% 36431 49.5% 34361 53.2% 1.22E-13 Total Total Pct Total Pct Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Prob of
Asked Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Vote Vote Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Difference
Given:
a) State Exit Poll response rates (73,607 total sample)
b) Bush two-party state vote shares
c) Bush two-party national vote share (51.24%)
Determine:
a) Bush vote share of state exit poll non-responders (refusers)
required to match the recorded state vote share.
b) Probability of the deviation between state responder and refuser vote
shares (from a).
c) Probability of the deviation between total state responder and refuser
vote shares (from b) required to match the recorded Bush 51.24% vote.
Even assuming an extremely conservative 1% MoE for the total sample (it's really 0.37%), the probability of a 3.7% (49.5-53.2) deviation between the average Bush responder and refuser vote shares is 1.22e-13 (1 in 8 trillion).
Total Total Pct Total Pct Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Prob of
Asked Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Vote Vote Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Difference
Total 138158 73607 53.3% 64551 46.7% 70791 51.2% 36431 49.5% 34361 53.2% 1.22E-13
HIGH BUSH
UT 1339 798 59.6% 541 40.4% 982 73.3% 559 70.1% 423 78.2% 0.00%
WY 1036 684 66.0% 352 34.0% 729 70.3% 465 67.9% 264 74.9% 0.02%
ID 884 559 63.2% 325 36.8% 613 69.3% 373 66.7% 240 73.9% 0.01%
NE 1180 785 66.5% 395 33.5% 789 66.8% 498 63.5% 291 73.6% 0.00%
OK 289 1539 53.2% 1354 46.8% 1897 65.6% 1005 65.3% 892 65.9% 37.29%
MODERATE BUSH
ND 1030 649 63.0% 381 37.0% 658 63.9% 431 66.4% 227 59.6% 0.03%
AK 1711 910 53.2% 801 46.8% 1082 63.2% 545 59.9% 537 67.1% 0.01%
AL 1122 654 58.3% 468 41.7% 706 62.9% 385 58.9% 320 68.5% 0.00%
KS 1132 730 64.5% 402 35.5% 712 62.9% 477 65.4% 234 58.3% 0.01%
TX 2866 1671 58.3% 1195 41.7% 1763 61.5% 1055 63.2% 708 59.2% 2.16%
SD 3501 1495 42.7% 2006 57.3% 2133 60.9% 936 62.6% 1197 59.7% 6.85%
IN 1470 926 63.0% 544 37.0% 889 60.5% 562 60.7% 327 60.1% 38.19%
MT 1658 640 38.6% 1018 61.4% 1002 60.4% 378 59.0% 624 61.3% 12.35%
MS 1517 798 52.6% 719 47.4% 910 60.0% 473 59.2% 438 60.9% 20.59%
KY 2085 1034 49.6% 1051 50.4% 1240 59.5% 587 56.8% 653 62.2% 0.31%
SC 2921 1735 59.4% 1186 40.6% 1713 58.6% 941 54.2% 772 65.1% 0.00%
GA 2404 1536 63.9% 868 36.1% 1403 58.4% 874 56.9% 529 60.9% 1.93%
LA 3492 1669 47.8% 1823 52.2% 2002 57.3% 926 55.5% 1075 59.0% 3.72%
TN 2660 1774 66.7% 886 33.3% 1521 57.2% 1044 58.8% 477 53.9% 0.55%
WV 3536 1722 48.7% 1814 51.3% 1997 56.5% 944 54.8% 1053 58.1% 4.80%
NC 4120 2167 52.6% 1953 47.4% 2317 56.2% 1142 52.7% 1175 60.2% 0.01%
AR 2447 1402 57.3% 1045 42.7% 1352 55.3% 749 53.4% 604 57.8% 1.27%
AZ 3088 1859 60.2% 1229 39.8% 1696 54.9% 987 53.1% 710 57.8% 0.84%
VA 2537 1431 56.4% 1106 43.6% 1373 54.1% 745 52.0% 629 56.8% 0.72%
MO 4591 2158 47.0% 2433 53.0% 2462 53.6% 1133 52.5% 1328 54.6% 14.60%
EVEN
CO 5133 2515 49.0% 2618 51.0% 2696 52.5% 1259 50.1% 1437 54.9% 0.71%
FL 5128 2846 55.5% 2282 44.5% 2685 52.4% 1449 50.9% 1236 54.2% 4.96%
NV 4310 2116 49.1% 2194 50.9% 2212 51.3% 1044 49.3% 1168 53.2% 2.37%
OH 4451 1963 44.1% 2488 55.9% 2273 51.1% 941 47.9% 1332 53.5% 0.22%
NM 3429 1951 56.9% 1478 43.1% 1728 50.4% 949 48.7% 779 52.7% 1.95%
IA 4757 2502 52.6% 2255 47.4% 2394 50.3% 1234 49.3% 1160 51.5% 13.86%
WI 4020 2223 55.3% 1797 44.7% 2002 49.8% 1107 49.8% 895 49.8% 48.99%
NH 4202 1849 44.0% 2353 56.0% 2072 49.3% 823 44.5% 1249 53.1% 0.00%
PA 4124 1930 46.8% 2194 53.2% 2010 48.7% 880 45.6% 1130 51.5% 0.13%
MI 4884 2452 50.2% 2432 49.8% 2358 48.3% 1163 47.4% 1194 49.1% 19.90%
MN 4808 2178 45.3% 2630 54.7% 2319 48.2% 989 45.4% 1331 50.6% 0.39%
OR 2008 1064 53.0% 944 47.0% 961 47.9% 519 48.8% 442 46.9% 16.82%
MODERATE KERRY
NJ 2546 1520 59.7% 1026 40.3% 1187 46.6% 667 43.9% 520 50.7% 0.02%
WA 3946 2123 53.8% 1823 46.2% 1829 46.4% 954 44.9% 875 48.0% 5.85%
DE 1339 770 57.5% 569 42.5% 618 46.2% 320 41.6% 298 52.4% 0.00%
HI 934 499 53.4% 435 46.6% 426 45.6% 233 46.7% 193 44.4% 11.76%
ME 3210 1968 61.3% 1242 38.7% 1458 45.4% 889 45.2% 569 45.8% 37.04%
IL 2756 1392 50.5% 1364 49.5% 1239 45.0% 616 44.3% 623 45.7% 23.83%
CA 3697 1919 51.9% 1778 48.1% 1656 44.8% 823 42.9% 834 46.9% 2.06%
CT 1710 872 51.0% 838 49.0% 765 44.7% 362 41.5% 403 48.1% 0.04%
MD 1684 1000 59.4% 684 40.6% 731 43.4% 430 43.0% 302 44.1% 27.64%
HIGH KERRY
NY 2508 1452 57.9% 1056 42.1% 1021 40.7% 523 36.0% 498 47.1% 0.00%
VT 1290 685 53.1% 605 46.9% 512 39.7% 235 34.3% 277 45.8% 0.00%
RI 1830 809 44.2% 1021 55.8% 722 39.4% 289 35.8% 432 42.3% 0.04%
MA 1573 889 56.5% 684 43.5% 586 37.3% 298 33.5% 288 42.1% 0.00%
DC 1486 795 53.5% 691 46.5% 141 9.5% 66 8.4% 74 10.8% 11.06%
Total 138158 73607 53.3% 64551 46.7% 70791 51.2% 36431 49.5% 34361 53.2% 1.22E-13 Total Total Pct Total Pct Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Bush Bush% Prob of
Asked Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Vote Vote Respond Respond Refuse Refuse Difference