View Full Version : Bush Approval Rating Forecast Model: What will it be in 6 months?
09-15-2005, 12:00 PM
If we fit a 4th degree polynomial to Bush's historical ratings (using CBS polling numbers) from Feb. 2001, it looks like he may be headed down to 30% in Feb. '06.
In which case, expect a wave of Paul Hackett clones to speak Truth to Power as they prepare for the mid-terms.
09-15-2005, 12:06 PM
Please check out truthisall.net. Hope you don't mind. I'll format it for new postings from you, anything you want to send me. Comments, suggestions, contributions-- may they flow freely. The site was an attempt to deal with my grief at your departure. Autorank has my email.
09-15-2005, 05:01 PM
Hi TIA! and hi bunches of my other email friends.. Thanks Anax for sending me here! Have to go teach yoga but will check back in later!
09-15-2005, 09:55 PM
Hi MG... Glad you found it...
09-16-2005, 04:41 PM
What if Bush is not President in 6 months----
*Roj polishes his handcuffs*
09-18-2005, 01:52 AM
Doesn't that look cool? Andy would like it, well maybe we'd have to put an electric chair in the background, but you get the drift.
PS. Check out kster's post (#2) just below. He's rokken!
09-18-2005, 01:23 PM
BREAKING: Bush’s Ratings Drop After Speech
This just in from Rasmussen Reports:
Thirty-five percent (35%) of Americans now say that President Bush has done a good or excellent job responding to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. That’s down from 39% before his speech from New Orleans.
09-18-2005, 02:53 PM
Bush angered his base at the thought that so much money will be spent on rebuilding a US city (horrors!), as opposed to spending all that money rebuilding Iraq.
Very, very good news!
09-18-2005, 03:39 PM
Has got to be shitting bricks. Imagine what the numbers really are.
09-18-2005, 03:41 PM
Nice to have another recognizable name from DU. Bring your DU friends and lets get the party started.
09-18-2005, 03:43 PM
Nice to have another recognizable name from DU. Get your friends coming.
09-18-2005, 04:17 PM
In which case, expect a wave of Paul Hackett clones to speak Truth to Power as they prepare for the mid-terms.
With the machines and all?
BTW, are you ignoring my question in your thread in the Bar, or just haven't been back???
09-18-2005, 05:05 PM
explanation for those of us who were right all along and those out there who want to ease their consciences!
What great news TIA, Gracias Amigo!
09-18-2005, 05:50 PM
Did you follow the "game"? That was the last thread I posted on until I was summarily banned. FYI, in this, my last thread, we exposed the exit poll naysayers who argued that Gore voters forgot who they voted for, that one out of 6 Democrats voted for Bush, and that exit polls are unreliable - in the U.S.
We delivered the knockout blow to those arguments in that thread. Was it just a coincidence that I was banned during the GAME?
Read THE GAME thread. And tell me what YOU think.
I did 14,000 posts in four years at DU. The trolls came to disrupt my posts much more than anyone else on DU. Time and again. You must know; you were there. So is it surprising that after 14,000 posts, I may have been curt in my response at times? Never vulgar. Just curt. I like to analyze problems using math-oriented spread sheets; that's why I focused on the pre-election polls and post election exit polls - the numbers made no sense and I wanted to calculate the probabilities.
When I calculated the odds of a stolen election to be in the millions, billions and trillions to one, the trolls couldn't deal with it. So they had to come and disrupt - never questioned the math (they couldn't argue with that). But my data was good, the margin of error was a given, and the deviations were all in Bush's favor. It was a slam-dunk. The probability of fraud was overwhelming. They couldn't handle it. So they had to come and troll against the overwhelming parade of mathematical facts.
Problem was, they never had a case. Only excuses, ad-hominems and bad-mouthing of my qualifications and "expertise". After all, I wasn't a pollster, just a math guy who liked to develop models to solve problems. They had no idea as to my analytical bona-fides or experience. So they were bound to lose.
And they did. IN THE GAME.
So I was banned. For telling the truth and not taking any crap from these disruptors. For fighting them every step of the way. And never losing a debate. I won them all.
So now I'm gone from DU. But that's OK. No regrets. I can truly say that DU was a great experience. I met some great cyberbuddies who care about the truth and learned a lot about human nature. In my line of work, people look to solve problems by using the best available data, building and stress-testing the model for various scenarios, while applying a dose of real-world common sense and historical perspective. So to see the naysayers in action, not understanding the math or the modeling process and turning logic on its head, was a new experience for me.
09-18-2005, 10:11 PM
TIA, thanks for that narrative. It meant a great deal, given all that's gone one. Thank you.
Elorie, did someone say Hackett? machines?
Here's a little thing I did on that election:
I've received no less than 7 PMs from folks at DU who wrote me to say that they went and handed this to him personally. He probably got screwed, you get some clues from the aricle. His staff was aware that things could go wrong but this was to weird for anybody to deal with in short order...and he then indicated he'd run against DeWine for Senate, which choked off a call for an investigation. But this guy is going to be loaded for bear in the Senate campaign. He'll get the nod (you'll understand why if you look at his numbers from the rural parts of his district) and probably win the Senate race.
The machine, tabulator, etc. problems will not be fixed by election day 2006 unless there is a revolt and people insist on paper. Won't happen. But if the heat is turned up real high, if the issue is raised, which it will be, by those who really want to win (this guy does), then it will be awfully hard to do the dirty deed in the full light of public observation. That's the best we can do and it's enough. Ohio is the place to rock, the new American civil rights and voting rights revolution started there.
There must be some way to call the UN in on this or something.
09-19-2005, 02:51 PM
Not voting machines, tho that would be good enough for me, but to dismantle external threats to their power. It's hard to defeat fascist dictators from within, ya know?
09-19-2005, 03:19 PM
And it serves to illustrate a concern I have which I'll just leave unaddressed for now. Needless to say, PI intends to do things a little differently. And yes, DU, IS a great experience, and continues to be a great place. I am always thrilled to see people come here yo PI, and have invited a few myself, but I always tell them PI isn't competing with DU (nothing can take DU's place), but rather a nice complement.
I have to say, tho, with my online time a little reduced from what it used to be, I find myself spending less and less time there, and I'm also not posting at all since I'm kinda peeved with them for having closed down one of my threads when it proved not to be sinking out of sight and contained some verboten thought (too tin-foil-hatty, I suppose). So, what the hell -- let the coincidence theorists have the run of the place. :whatever:
Glad you're here, and thanks again for the update.
But somehow the average American voter always seems to amaze me at their ignorance.
Good to see ya TIA
09-19-2005, 09:33 PM
You did a great job in the GAME thread. Too bad it had to end on a sour note. But we won that GAME. It was worth it.
Thanks for your support and welcome to PI.
Ah yes...the 'game' thread, heh.
The thread that failed to produce a single plausible scenario by the 'Liddle Rascals'.
Got a few enlightening PM's after it was locked, to boot.
09-20-2005, 09:51 PM
This is THE most exciting thing I've read in a while: "I've received no less than 7 PMs from folks at DU who wrote me to say that they went and handed this to him [Hackett] personally."
We need all hands on deck - a candidate who will be dipped if he lets anyone steal our votes may just be the man for the job. Go Hackett!
09-20-2005, 09:58 PM
Is it okay to say HAARP over here? :creep:
By the way, your post clearly broke some ground over there - plenty of LIHOP/MIHOP threads since then.
09-20-2005, 10:32 PM
Now that you are here, all is possible.
Those characters over there really missed the boat. Now that TIA is gone, they are sad and homeless. Plotting to shoot him was insane... they only undermined their own reason for being.
09-21-2005, 12:07 AM
This place is turning into "Magic, The Gathering" ;) but seriously, it's great to see you here.
Now if that damn tommcintyre shows up! ...he'll arrive... he's one of those, "fashionably late" people.
09-21-2005, 12:11 AM
Somehow a candidate who calls * a "son of a bitch" and a "chicken hawk" on multiple occasions, radio, print, TV, is one who restores my faith in the political process. That's a Democrat I'd feel good working/voting for!
Hell with the cigars....
I got new icons to play with hehehe
(is there anyway to see 'your posts' on this forum....or do you just have to remember where you posted and check back?)
09-21-2005, 06:39 AM
PI is working on it...
I tried responding earlier, but the forum kept spitting back at me.
09-22-2005, 06:36 PM
I got banned before you and Anax started posting on DU. After my banning I still kept up with the board and really liked both of your posts. Glad to see you here.
09-22-2005, 08:19 PM
I'm a good straight man, I like your icon.
09-22-2005, 09:06 PM
We conversed several times about MP and other subjects... but I was low profile at the time.
09-23-2005, 05:00 AM
du troll dance notwithstanding, there is very little knowledge out there of the mathematical and statistical principles underlying exit poll methodology, in spite of its widespread use, no standard work of reference in print form available to polit scientists, journalists, activists or the math-challenged lay public, making the subject matter a very fertile ground for spin
09-23-2005, 01:11 PM
Senility. What can I say? I hope I was kind.
But I'm just the Common Sense Police, heh.
(Chi points at Anax) Now he's the one I make sure to read all posts from.
Glad to be here too, and glad to meet you (bow).
09-23-2005, 09:24 PM
You were hitting your head against the MP logic (when he was at his most believable). You were straining to get it but weren't quite buying it. I said to myself (but only to myself), "this guy has great radar"....
10-06-2005, 09:18 PM
On the way to 30% in 6 months? Conservative. Five point drop to 37% as of 10/5.
10-06-2005, 11:42 PM
10-07-2005, 07:31 AM
As much as I detest the notion of reliance on intuition, many people have said that I have a very good intuitive sense and that it is my greatest talent/gift.
I would much prefer to rely on science, rather than intuition, but many times things that are passed off as science (or religion), just don't seem to feel right or fail to persuade me.
MP's arguments, and even the arguments of Liddle and OnTheOtherHand, though cloaked in science, just don't persuade me.
The argument that TIA's analyses are wrong because the premises on which they are based is wrong, just seems hollow to me. The garbage in, garbage out, argument seems just too convienient. Just my intuition talking.
I can understand how polls can be off significantly for a number of good reasons when you are only polling 1,000 people in a certain locale. But when you are talking about 70,000 people in every state and in every locale type imaginable --, to be off by as much as we now know they were, something is just rotten in Denmark. I feel it in my bones.
10-11-2005, 08:40 PM
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